The global biodiesel market exhibited varied trends during the week ending October 24, 2025, as influenced by trade patterns and supply balances. Biodiesel UCO FOB Qingdao in China decreased 1.29%, continuing the bearish trend noted the previous week, as EU anti-dumping duties reduced exports, increasing domestic supply, and causing prices to weaken. Biodiesel UCO CFR Houston in the U.S. decreased 0.32%, reflecting some weak pressure in a steady market that continues to be supported by steady process inputs. Biodiesel UCOME FOB Rotterdam in Europe was down 0.39%. Demand volume remained steady as UCOME prices were stabilized through consistent domestic biodiesel production meeting 70% of demand, with the remaining 30% imported. Overall, market sentiment remains stable in the West, but weak in Asia. In the near term, analysts expect moderate volatility鈥攑rices in Asia may weaken further due to export constraints, while the U.S. and European markets are expected to remain in a trading range; however, these may change depending on trade conditions or feedstock costs.
During the week ending October 24, 2025, the global biodiesel market showed varied performance due to regional dynamics, trade restrictions, and supply and demand balances affecting price direction in major trading hubs.
In China, Biodiesel UCO FOB Qingdao decreased by 1.29% which illustrates protracted bearish sentiment in the market. The drop continues a downward market direction that forms because of recently implemented European Union (EU) anti-dumping duties placed on Chinese biodiesel and hydrotreated vegetable oil. Restrictions on trade and exporting used cooking oil (UCO) to Europe have had the effect of prohibiting Chinese suppliers to gain access to the European market, so they are obliged to divert all volumes to the local domestic market. Consequently, the domestic supply of biodiesel UCO grew and quickly caused downward pressure on the ex-works valuations as sellers faced increased onslaught of competition due to demand being low.
While exporting domestic used cooking oil (UCO) has increased, which has tightened the local supply of feedstock and increased production costs marginally, that pushed the agriculture cost curve has not at all abated the effect of the oversupply dilemma. According to analysts - if trade restrictions stay or even demand remains stagnant for biodiesel UCO, price deterioration in Chinese biodiesel UCO market as we know it will continue to further weaken.
On the other hand, Biodiesel UCO CFR Houston in the US has decreased by 0.32%, albeit with moderate pressure in a balanced market environment. However, this slight decline occurs without changes in input costs and in the context of stable supply-demand fundamentals. Although the 12-week trend remains significantly neutral, U.S. biodiesel has continued to maintain a relatively balanced market.
According to market players, stable inventories and stable input prices have discouraged volatility. As long as refiners maintain consistent run rates, and with no major changes to policy or flows in trade, we expect U.S. biodiesel prices to stay relatively stable in the near term.
Moreover, Biodiesel UCOME FOB Rotterdam also decreased by 0.39%, reflecting a similar neutral tone in regional pricing. Market conditions are still characterized as steady and balanced in Rotterdam. Industry sources indicate that this balance of domestic production and imports is helping to stabilize the pricing despite small, minor fluctuations week-on-week. However, anything that might cause a significant departure from the current ratio of imports to domestic production would create a ripple effect and change supply dynamics that could in turn disrupt current stability.
Ultimately, the consumption of biodiesel continues to be split between a bearish bias in Asia and stable-to neutral market sentiment from Western influences. Now that EU trade measures continue to alter global trade flows, watching markets suggests that short-term price movements may depend more on policies and feedstock availability, than sudden demand fluctuations. Markets are expected to show a moderate amount of volatility over the next few weeks. Asian prices are expected to soften more, considering export restrictions continuing. Western markets should stay within a narrow and steady range. However, if feedstock prices rise or trade restrictions ease unexpectedly, affected regional markets could recover in the short term.
