Even though favorable weather conditions are projected to more than double Zimbabwe's corn production in 2025-26, the nation will continue to rely on foreign supply to meet its growing demand.
Zimbabwe is on the cusp of a significant agricultural recovery, with corn production for the 2025-26 marketing year forecast to more than double compared to the previous, drought-stricken season. This optimistic outlook, detailed in a report by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture, is largely attributed to improved weather conditions across the nation.
Following a challenging 2024-25 marketing year that saw production plummet to 635,000 tonnes due to severe drought, the FAS now projects Zimbabwe's corn output to reach an impressive 1.3 million tonnes. This remarkable rebound is primarily due to a "stronger La Ni帽a weather pattern in the second half of the production season," which brought much-needed rainfall and fostered healthier crop development. La Ni帽a typically brings above-average rainfall to Southern Africa, offering a stark contrast to the drier conditions associated with El Ni帽o, which has impacted the region in recent years.
Corn imports are forecast to decline by 300,000 tonnes year-on-year, settling at 1 million tonnes in 2025-26. While this represents a notable decrease, the FAS report highlights that this figure remains "historically high." This continued reliance on imports underscores the persistent gap between domestic supply and the nation's burgeoning demand for corn, which is estimated to increase by 8% to 2.2 million tonnes in 2025-26. Corn, particularly white corn, is the staple food in Zimbabwe, consumed widely as "sadza," and its availability is critical for national food security.
The majority of Zimbabwe's corn imports are anticipated to originate from South Africa, a regional powerhouse in grain production, which is expected to have approximately 1.5 million tonnes available for export in the upcoming marketing year. This regional trade relationship remains crucial for Zimbabwe's food security strategy.
Despite the promising projections, the FAS report also sheds light on the fundamental challenges that continue to plague Zimbabwe's corn growers. The agricultural sector remains highly vulnerable to climatic shifts, with over 90% of corn production being rain-fed due to limited access to irrigation technologies. This dependency makes farmers highly susceptible to erratic rainfall patterns, even with the beneficial effects of La Ni帽a.
Furthermore, approximately 60% of the total area is undertaken by communal farmers. These farmers account for less than 40% of the overall output due to consistently low yields. This disparity is often attributed to a combination of factors like limited access to modern farming techniques, quality inputs, and financial resources. Macroeconomic challenges within Zimbabwe, such as high inflation and the volatility of the local currency, further exacerbate the situation by driving up the costs of fuel and fertilizer.
