For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) prices in North America experienced a notable upward trend, in contrast to the slight decline observed in Q4 2024. The quarter began with stable prices in early January but witnessed consecutive price increases driven by supply-side constraints, seasonal stocking ahead of the planting season, and global export restrictions鈥攑articularly from China. By the end of January, DAP prices climbed, reflecting limited availability and rising input costs from Phosphoric Acid.
In February, the bullish momentum continued, supported by growing demand in anticipation of spring cultivation and tariff-related concerns on Mexican and Canadian imports. Strategic stockpiling led U.S. imports to a record high, and prices surged by month-end. March saw moderate fluctuations, inching up slightly before dipping 2% in the final week due to off-season agricultural activity and ample inventory levels.
Compared to Q4 2024, when prices dropped 2.39% due to weak demand and logistical challenges, Q1 2025 marked a rebound, reflecting heightened supply constraints, tariff disruptions, and seasonal agricultural demand.
APAC
In Q1 2025, Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) prices in the APAC region displayed moderate bullishness, reversing the 3.93% decline seen in Q4 2024. Starting at USD 662/MT in early January at Tanjung Priok, Indonesia, prices gradually increased by the end of March. This quarterly uptick was driven by constrained global supply due to China鈥檚 ongoing export restrictions, stable to rising feedstock Phosphoric Acid prices, and seasonal demand recovery from the agriculture sector. In January, subdued demand and oversupplied ammonia initially kept prices flat, but stocking activities ahead of the Lunar New Year caused a brief rise. February saw stable prices as Indonesia鈥檚 imports dropped, yet strong fertilizer demand, supported by government subsidies, kept sentiment positive.
聽By late February, prices edged up, supported by tight regional DAP and feedstock supplies. March maintained the firm price level as Indonesia entered peak agricultural preparation for Ramadan, offsetting any potential downward pressure from declining ammonia costs. Overall, the quarter was characterized by resilient demand and tighter supply fundamentals, leading to sustained pricing strength in the region.
Europe
In Q1 2025, the Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) market in Europe demonstrated a bullish price trend, with prices climbing in early January by the end of March, reflecting an overall increase of over 11%. This uptrend was driven by constrained regional supply, consistent agricultural demand, and upstream challenges. January began with sluggish demand due to the holiday season and adverse weather, although prices started inching up amid low stock availability and increased buyer activity ahead of the planting season. February witnessed steady to bullish price movements, supported by a persistent supply-demand gap, tight global phosphate markets, and higher feedstock costs. March saw prices peak as European inventory tightened due to limited availability from key suppliers like Tunisia and Russia, compounded by severe port disruptions and strong seasonal demand. Morocco鈥檚 OCP capitalized on the supply shortfall, emerging as a dominant supplier in Europe. Compared to Q4 2024, where prices rose modestly by just 0.20% amid balanced dynamics, Q1 2025 marked a sharper upturn, driven by tightening supplies, adverse logistics, and aggressive stocking ahead of the spring cultivation cycle.
South America
In Q1 2025, the Di-Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) market in Brazil witnessed a gradual but firm upward price trajectory, registering an approximate 4.23% increase over the quarter. Starting at USD 585/MT in early January, prices climbed steadily till the end of March. This bullish movement was largely fueled by persistent global supply constraints, including China鈥檚 ongoing phosphate export restrictions and logistical disruptions, especially in Russia and Brazil鈥檚 key ports. Meanwhile, the limited availability of feedstock Phosphate Rock and Phosphoric Acid, coupled with fluctuating Ammonia prices, maintained upward pressure on production costs. Despite stable to moderate DAP production rates in exporting countries, constrained inventory and rising upstream costs supported the pricing rally.
On the demand side, Brazil's robust agricultural activity鈥攄riven by an anticipated record soybean harvest and rising fertilizer needs for corn cultivation鈥攊ntensified phosphate requirements. However, elevated DAP prices led many buyers to partially shift toward lower-cost alternatives like SSP and TSP. Compared to Q4 2024, when DAP prices fell by 1.57%, the first quarter of 2025 marked a strong recovery, driven by tightening global supply and stronger domestic demand dynamics.
MEA
In Q1 2025, Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) prices in the MEA region experienced a moderate decline overall, reversing the upward momentum seen in Q4 2024. Prices began the quarter at USD 625/MT in early January and gradually dipped by month-end due to sluggish demand, lower Ammonia prices, and weather-related agricultural uncertainties impacting crop cultivation. In February, the market saw a turnaround with a mild bullish trend as prices rose incrementally by month-end. This was largely driven by tighter global phosphate supplies amid continued Chinese export restrictions and steady international demand, especially from Southeast Asia, Africa, and the US. March maintained price stability, supported by firm exports, consistent domestic demand, and balanced supply dynamics. Compared to Q4 2024, where DAP prices had surged 5.91% amid constrained supply and supply chain disruptions, Q1 2025 reflected a more tempered and stabilized trend. Despite early bearishness, improved export activity and proactive stocking helped offset demand-side weakness, leading to a balanced quarterly outlook.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) prices in the US declined by 2.39% compared to the previous quarter. The price drop was attributed to subdued demand during the autumn harvest season and cautious purchasing as buyers awaited more favorable pricing terms. Supply chain disruptions, including reduced Chinese exports and tariffs on Mexican imports, further strained availability.
Production rates remained moderate due to limited feedstock Phosphoric Acid supplies, while sluggish activity in lithium iron phosphate battery manufacturing added to upstream constraints. Export volumes declined, particularly to Europe and Australia, as global demand softened. Meanwhile, domestic demand weakened due to reduced ammonia purchasing activity and lower fertilizer demand in North America.
Inflationary pressures persisted, with rising production costs impacting market dynamics. Despite these challenges, suppliers maintained stable operations, supported by controlled production levels and balanced inventory management, which helped mitigate sharper price declines. The quarter reflected a cautious market sentiment and significant headwinds, setting a challenging tone for DAP market performance moving into early 2025.
APAC
In the fourth quarter of 2024, Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) prices experienced a 3.93% decrease compared to the previous quarter. This price decline was largely influenced by a combination of sluggish demand, seasonal factors, and supply chain disruptions. While the market initially saw stability due to balanced demand-supply dynamics, the latter part of the quarter witnessed a slowdown in fertilizer industry activity, driven by off-season procurement and weaker Urea production. Production rates for DAP remained intermediate, with moderate availability of feedstock like Phosphoric Acid and fluctuating Ammonia costs. The Chinese government鈥檚 decision to halt DAP exports from December 2024 until April 2025 exacerbated supply tightness, but this was countered by a steady domestic demand from China鈥檚 agricultural sector. The supply chain disruptions, including those caused by Typhoon Kong-Rey and the approach of Chinese New Year, further limited global availability. Additionally, the reduced demand from regional markets like India and lower exports to the Far East contributed to the overall price decline. Despite these challenges, the global supply of DAP remained constrained, supporting the price stability at the end of the quarter. The steady domestic demand in China, combined with the logistical disruptions, helped prevent a more significant drop in prices. Moving forward, the market is expected to stabilize as global supply dynamics balance out with improved demand in early 2025.
Europe
The Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) market in Europe recorded a slight 0.20% price increase from the previous quarter. Prices remained largely stable as supply and demand dynamics stayed balanced amid various challenges. In October, robust production activity, supported by a 2.4% year-on-year rise in agrochemical output by PhosAgro, maintained consistent market supply. Moderate demand from the agricultural sector ensured equilibrium in pricing despite a prolonged downturn in European manufacturing output. By November, feedstock Ammonia availability tightened due to increased natural gas demand during winter, impacting DAP production rates. Adverse weather conditions and subdued trading activity further dampened agricultural demand, leading to cautious procurement and inventory stockpiling by buyers. In December, disruptions caused by storms, port congestion, and weak crop performance due to heavy rainfall affected logistics and demand. However, DAP production rates remained stable, with manufacturers leveraging backlogs to maintain market availability. The modest quarterly price increase reflects manufacturers鈥� cautious supply strategies and consistent agricultural sector support, despite seasonal and logistical challenges that restrained overall market activity.
South America
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) market in Brazil experienced a slight 1.57% price decrease compared to the previous quarter. The decrease can be attributed to a combination of supply and demand factors that shaped market conditions during the period. On the supply side, DAP production remained moderate due to limited availability of feedstock Phosphoric Acid and reduced cost support from Ammonia, influenced by weaker demand from fertilizer manufacturers. Additionally, port congestion at Santos caused occasional delays, further complicating supply chains. Despite these issues, production rates remained steady, with exporters managing to meet market needs with moderate supplies. Demand for DAP remained relatively stable, though subdued, driven by steady fertilizer needs linked to agricultural output. However, limited purchasing activity and tight supply conditions tempered market growth. Strong demand for potash helped maintain pricing stability for DAP, but overall, the market faced reduced growth prospects, contributing to the slight price decline. The 1.57% decrease in DAP prices reflects a well-balanced supply-demand dynamic, where moderate production and logistics disruptions offset steady demand, resulting in a slight retreat in pricing compared to the previous quarter.
MEA
In Q4 2024, Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) prices saw a 5.91% increase compared to the previous quarter. The price rise was driven by moderate production rates and supply chain disruptions, coupled with limited availability of key feedstocks like Phosphate Rock and Ammonia. Throughout the quarter, DAP production remained steady despite weak Phosphate Rock supplies and reduced Ammonia cost support due to sluggish demand from fertilizer manufacturers. While the global export market faced challenges, businesses proactively advanced shipments to mitigate supply shortages, contributing to the price increase. Demand remained subdued but steady, with consistent fertilizer requirements driven by ongoing agricultural activities. Seasonal weakening in demand was observed, particularly in key importing regions like India, due to slower procurement activities and weather-related crop concerns. Despite these challenges, the agricultural sector continued to support demand, maintaining overall stability in the market. The combination of constrained supply, steady agricultural demand, and supply chain adjustments helped drive the 5.91% price increase, positioning the DAP market for a stable outlook as it enters the new year.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) pricing in North America oscillated and witnessed a reduction in the second half of the quarter, notably influenced by several key factors. Initially, the region faced challenges with feedstock Ammonia scarcity, impacting production capacities and hindering price stabilization efforts. The offtakes were moderate, and market players raised their quotations marginally, however the market dynamics remain stable.
However, the market saw a downturn in prices due to weakened demand in the agriculture sector, exacerbated by unstable operational rates at manufacturing units. Supply constraints, particularly in feedstock availability, further contributed to the declining prices. Additionally, the overall market sentiment was negative, with buyers cautiously navigating amid rising inflation and uncertain crop prices, leading to subdued purchasing patterns.
Compared to the previous quarter, prices remained stagnant, with a slight decline of 0%. The first half of the quarter saw a noticeable decrease of 1% in prices, highlighting a downward trend. The price difference remained constant between the first and second half of the quarter, indicating a lack of significant fluctuations. Ultimately, the quarter concluded with Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) DEL Illinois prices at USD 555/MT, underscoring the prevailing negative pricing sentiment in the USA market.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) market showcased bullish sentiments in the APAC region and prices experienced a notable increase. This surge can be attributed to several key factors that influenced market dynamics. One significant driver of the price hike was the uptick in demand from buyers in preparation for the upcoming planting season, leading to heightened market offtakes. Additionally, the limited availability of supplies and increased procurement activities by regional buyers further fueled the price escalation. The cost support from feedstock Ammonia and Phosphoric Acid played a crucial role, with moderate to low availability affecting production costs. The market dynamics were further complicated by supply chain disruptions impacted by seasonal factors like monsoons and typhoons and geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil imports, leading to variable feedstock availability and affliction in production rates. Moreover, the quarter-on-quarter incline of 11% and the 6% price variance between the first and second half of the quarter underscored the volatility in the market. The latest recorded price of USD 697/MT of DAP CFR Tokyo in Japan signifies the culmination of a quarter marked by a consistently increasing pricing environment.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2024, the pricing landscape for Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) in the European region has been characterized by a fluctuating pricing environment predominantly positive, characterized by an incline in prices. Various factors have influenced these price hikes. The rise in production costs due to increased feedstock prices, especially for Ammonia, played a crucial role. Additionally, heightened demand from the agriculture sector, coupled with limited supply availability, contributed to the upward pricing trend. The seasonal nature of agricultural activities also impacted market dynamics, with the need for fertilizers like DAP peaking during this period. However, towards the end of the quarter, DAP prices witnessed an inconsiderable decrease as supply availability improved in the market post-summer holidays. Yet demand failed to match this increase, exacerbating inventory levels. Additionally, the quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% further emphasizes the ongoing price uptrend. Within the quarter, the first half saw a marginal price change compared to the second half, showcasing a steady escalation in prices. The latest quarter-ending price of USD 660/MT for Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) FD Hamburg in Germany after a 1% increase in the previous quarter's prices.
Middle East
Like the Asian region, the third quarter of 2024 witnessed a significant uptrend in Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) prices across the Middle Eastern region, with Saudi Arabia experiencing the most pronounced price inclination. This surge was primarily influenced by a combination of factors, including robust demand from the agriculture sector, supply shortages due to disruptions in upstream raw material imports, and affliction in production costs stemming from rising feedstock prices. The quarter saw a substantial 16% increase from the same period last year, reflecting the overall bullish market sentiment. Moreover, compared to the previous quarter in 2024, prices surged by 10%, indicating a continued upward trajectory in pricing. Within the quarter, the first half saw a notable price jump of 9%, further emphasizing the escalating trend in DAP prices. As the third quarter of 2024 ended, the latest price for Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) FOB Jeddah in Saudi Arabia stood at USD 618/MT, underscoring the prevailing positive pricing environment characterized by increasing price dynamics.
South America
In Q3 2024, the Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) price trend fluctuated and pricing in the South America region experienced a downward trend. Several significant factors contributed to this decline. Firstly, there was a surplus in global supply, leading to increased competition among exporters. At the same time, reduced demand from the agriculture sector due to stable consumption of fertilizers negatively impacted the prices. The availability of feedstock materials such as Phosphoric Acid and Ammonia also played a crucial role in shaping market dynamics. In Brazil, the pricing environment reflected a consistent decrease throughout the quarter. This decline was influenced by various factors such as fluctuations in currency exchange rates, seasonal variations in agricultural activities, and changes in global fertilizer demand. The quarter saw a 5% decrease compared to the same period last year, indicating a gradual shift in market conditions. Moreover, the 1% decrease from the previous quarter in 2024 highlighted a continuous downward trajectory. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed a negative change of 1%, culminating in the quarter-ending price of USD 570/MT for Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) Bulk CFR Manaus in Brazil. This consistent decrease signifies a challenging pricing environment with a negative sentiment prevailing in the market.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) prices in North America dropped significantly due to several factors. The primary cause was an oversupply resulting from relaxed export restrictions in major producing regions, which created a bearish market. Sluggish demand from the fertilizer sector, as agricultural producers had already secured ample supplies for the planting season, further intensified the price decline.
In the USA, where the most notable price changes occurred, the trend was markedly negative. Prices fell by 22% year-on-year and 7% from the previous quarter. Seasonal factors, such as the typical post-planting demand lull and increased inventory, contributed to the price drop. The first half of the quarter saw a 4% decline compared to the latter half, indicating persistent downward momentum.
By the end of the quarter, DAP DEL Illinois prices stabilized at USD 560/MT, reflecting the continued negative market sentiment. The Q2 2024 pricing environment remained challenging for DAP producers in North America, mirroring the broader global oversupply and weak demand conditions.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) market in the APAC region showed a notably bearish trend. Prices consistently declined due to an oversupply, worsened by a surge in imports from China following eased export restrictions. This influx of Chinese DAP outpaced global demand, creating a market glut that significantly depressed prices. Rising production costs, driven by higher feedstock prices like natural gas and ammonia, also impacted the market. Additionally, seasonal factors, such as the end of the planting season, contributed to reduced demand and further price drops. In Japan, where price fluctuations were most pronounced, DAP prices fell sharply. The market experienced a 14% year-over-year decrease and a 6% drop from the previous quarter. Prices in the first half of the quarter were 3% lower than in the second half, reflecting a steady downward trend. This decline was due to ample supply, stable but not growing demand, and rising production costs. By the end of the quarter, the DAP CFR Tokyo price settled at USD 630/MT, highlighting the persistent negative pricing environment. This decline underscores the market's sensitivity to supply shocks and the importance of balanced production and demand for price stability.
Europe
In the second quarter of 2024, Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) prices in Europe decreased notably due to several key factors. Increased product availability, coupled with stable demand that did not match the surge in supply, drove prices down. The resumption of production at EuroChem's Lifosa plant in Lithuania further boosted regional supply. Higher Phosphate rock prices and rising Natural Gas costs increased production expenses, despite moderate support from feedstock Ammonia. In Germany, the market mirrored the broader European trend with significant price adjustments. Seasonal planting and harvesting cycles influenced demand, leading to a 1% price drop from the first to the second half of the quarter, particularly towards the end of Q2. Simultaneously, manufacturing activities and procurement activities continued to remain sluggish during the period. Prices decreased by 15% year-over-year and remained unchanged from the previous quarter, reflecting a stable but negative trend. By the end of the quarter, DAP FD Hamburg prices were USD 626/MT, highlighting the ongoing negative market sentiment.
Middle East
In Q2 2024, Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) prices in the MEA region fell significantly due to several factors. Eased export restrictions led to an oversupply, putting downward pressure on prices. At the same time, lower feedstock ammonia and natural gas prices reduced production costs, contributing to the price drop. Saudi Arabia experienced the most notable fluctuations. During the mid-quarter, the cost support declined from feedstock Phosphoric Acid due to a reduction in upstream raw material Phosphorous yellow prices amid weak purchasing activities. At the same time, producers halted offers for June and July shipments, and exports remained tight. Meanwhile, the offtakes were moderate from the buyers amid the stable stocking practices from the buyers. Prices dropped 3% year-over-year and 9% from the previous quarter, reflecting a persistent bearish trend. Within the quarter, prices fell 7% from the first half to the second, highlighting a consistent downward trajectory. Seasonal factors, including the post-harvest period, further reduced demand, leading to price declines. By the end of Q2 2024, DAP prices in Saudi Arabia were USD 517/MT FOB Jeddah, underscoring a negative market environment. The combination of increased supply, low demand, and subdued market activity drove the overall decline in product prices.
South America
In Q2 2024, Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) prices in South America fell, with Brazil experiencing the most significant decline. This trend was driven by several factors: global oversupply due to increased imports from the USA and eased export restrictions from China created a market surplus, leading to competitive pricing.聽 Additionally, limited supply from key exporters and ongoing shipping challenges exacerbated the price drop. In the middle of quarter two of 2024, cost support from feedstock Phosphoric Acid decreased due to a drop in upstream Phosphorous yellow prices amid weak purchasing activity. Concurrently, producers suspended offers for June and July shipments, and exports remained limited. In Brazil, prices decreased by 7% from the previous quarter. The first half of the quarter saw a 4% price drop compared to the second half, reflecting a consistent downward trend. Year-over-year, prices fell by 21%, indicating a substantial shift in market conditions. By the end of the quarter, DAP Bulk CFR Manaus prices in Brazil were USD 575/MT, highlighting the overall negative pricing sentiment.
