For the Quarter Ending March 2026
听
Ethanol Prices in听North America
- In USA, the Ethanol Price Index fell by 5.38% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting stronger supply and softer demand.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 568.33/MT, reflecting balanced supply and demand.
- Ethanol Spot Price action tightened late March as inventories declined and export loadings increased materially.
- Ethanol Price Forecast signals modest near-term firmness supported by blending economics and higher feedstock costs.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend shows upward pressure from rising corn prices and elevated energy and logistics expenses.
- Ethanol Demand Outlook improved for gasoline blending while industrial consumption remained steady, supporting balanced offtake.
- Ethanol Price Index movements reflected mixed weekly volatility, with record run rates offset by inventory drawdowns recently.
- Supply interruptions and regional export demand tightened FOB hubs, reinforcing U.S. Ethanol Price Index strength into month end.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in March 2026 in North America?
- Corn feedstock increased, lifting production cash costs and translating to higher delivered ethanol values domestically.
- Inventory draws combined with stronger export loadings tightened physical availability and supported spot improvements recently.
- Higher crude and gasoline futures improved blending economics, incentivising aggressive procurement and underpinning price gains.
听
Ethanol Prices in听APAC
- In South Korea, the Ethanol Price Index fell by 0.91% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting steady imports only.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 688.00/MT, per CFR Ulsan assessments.
- Ethanol Spot Price tightened in late March as merchant availability reduced and technical-grade demand increased.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend firmed as maize import costs rose and currency weakness raised costs.
- Ethanol Demand Outlook improved with stronger semiconductor cleaning needs, coatings production and fuel blending increases.
- Ethanol Price Forecast edged higher due to tightening supply, regulatory blending signals and industrial buying.
- Ethanol Price Index turned bullish after Yeochun cracker closure and downstream demand squeezed availability regionally.
- Inventory levels tightened at key ports prompting just-in-time buyers to compete for limited cargo parcels.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in March 2026 in APAC?
- Yeochun NCC cracker shutdown reduced synthetic output, tightening supply and prompting importers to seek cargoes.
- Maize feedstock increases and weaker Korean won raised landed costs, supporting import offers in March.
- Stronger semiconductor and coatings demand, plus aviation blending signals, increased offtake and tightened merchant availability.
听
Ethanol Prices in听Europe
- In Germany, the Ethanol Price Index fell by 2.80% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting softer import competition and margins.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 682.00/MT, reflecting weighted spot and contract benchmarks.
- Ethanol Spot Price dynamics showed rangebound trading amid steady imports and normal domestic distillery run rates.
- Ethanol Price Forecast indicates modest upside risk as blending mandates and geopolitical freight premiums persist.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend remains elevated due to high regional energy tariffs and persistent freight surcharges.
- Ethanol Demand Outlook strengthened because E10 blending mandates and quota timing accelerated merchant purchases and restocking.
- Ethanol Price Index volatility increased as Black Sea constraints raised grain costs, elongating shipping leadtimes and pressure.
- Ethanol Spot Price liquidity tightened late quarter supported by proactive buying while inventories moved toward lower ranges.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in March 2026 in Europe?
- Freight surcharges from Black Sea detours tightened feedstock availability and raised delivered ethanol production costs.
- Stricter blending mandates and quota timing accelerated demand, prompting frontloading by refiners and spot purchasing activities.
- Stable domestic plant operations and balanced import flows limited supply shocks despite higher energy and shipping cost pressures.
听
Ethanol Prices in听South America
- In Brazil, the Ethanol Price Index rose by 4.98% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting tightened export and domestic demand dynamics.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 801.33/MT, reflecting sustained export interest and seasonal supply constraints.
- Ethanol Spot Price movements tightened mid-quarter as corn-ethanol output ramped, reducing immediate spot availability and bids.
- Ethanol Price Forecast for Q2 indicates mixed seasonal pressure, with export demand potentially countering softer domestic blending demand.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend showed upward feedstock influence as maize prices ticked higher, pressuring producer margins modestly.
- Ethanol Demand Outlook remains supportive from domestic E27 mandate and resilient flex-fuel transport, underpinning baseline offtake.
- Ethanol Price Index showed intra-month volatility, influenced by mills retaining cargoes and intermittent export enquiries.
- Tight inland trucking flows to Santos and steady terminal inventories balanced export liftings, shaping near-term supplier negotiation strength.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in March 2026 in South America?
- Seasonal cane intercrop reduced sugarcane-derived flows, while corn-ethanol partially offset supply shortfall, keeping availability adequate.
- Export enquiries softened in March, weakening overseas offtake even as domestic mandated blending sustained baseline demand.
- Maize feedstock costs rose slightly and shipping considerations modestly increased logistics cost, compressing margins for exporters.
For the Quarter Ending December 2025
North America
- In USA, the Ethanol Price Index fell by 1.80% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting stronger domestic supply over demand.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 635.67/MT, reflecting muted winter blending demand.
- Inventory builds and record plant throughput pressured the Ethanol Spot Price despite pockets of export-driven strength.
- Near-term Ethanol Price Forecast shows modest weakness driven by ample feedstock and seasonal blending demand softness.
- Lower听corn听costs influenced the Ethanol Production Cost Trend, enabling sustained run rates and marginal producer margins.
- Domestic blending dynamics underpin the Ethanol Demand Outlook, with weaker winter transport activity reducing discretionary offtake.
- Regional logistics improvements limited basis volatility, while Ethanol Price Index volatility reflected changing export flows and inventory swings.
- High export volumes intermittently supported bids, but persistent oversupply and cautious buying kept market participants on sidelines.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in December 2025 in North America?
- Record domestic production increased marketed supply, outpacing winter blending demand and pressuring spot assessments materially.
- Softer corn values reduced production costs slightly, yet RIN credits decline and export uncertainty weighed on buying.
- Improved logistics and unit-train availability eased deliverability issues, enabling inventory builds and dampening price rallies.
APAC
- In South Korea, the Ethanol Price Index fell by 1.7% quarter-over-quarter, supply relief outweighed demand.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 694.33/MT, reflecting import parity levels.
- Ethanol Spot Price softened as ample imports and smoother logistics pressured offers despite semiconductor demand.
- Ethanol Price Forecast indicates limited near-term downside constrained by operational hydration units and chipmaking requirements.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend eased; cheaper ethane feed and lower freight reduced synthetic production expenses.
- Ethanol Demand Outlook remains mixed with steady semiconductor uptake but weak beverage and fuel blending.
- Ethanol Price Index volatility reflected alternating import fluxes, cracker feedstock shifts, and stocking by traders.
- Inventory builds at Ulsan terminals and shipments reduced urgency, while exports remained opportunistic amid arbitrage.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in December 2025 in APAC?
- Domestic hydration feed restoration and steady imports increased volumes, exerting downward pressure on spot offers.
- Freight moderations and weaker FOB values reduced landed costs despite occasional spikes from origin rotations.
- Off-season beverage consumption and solvent substitution curtailed demand, while semiconductor steady demand partially offset losses.
Europe
- In Germany, the Ethanol Price Index fell by 2.77% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting softer import competition pressures.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 701.67/MT, reflecting subdued year-end liquidity and balanced inventories.
- Ethanol Spot Price weakness reflected abundant imports and contributed to a lower Price Index amid subdued blending activity.
- Ethanol Demand Outlook remains muted with discretionary blending curtailed and industrial procurement focusing on short-term needs.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend was stable as feedstock and energy costs remained flat, limiting immediate upward Price Index pressure.
- Ethanol Price Forecast suggests modest range-bound movement as imports rebuild inventories and export demand stays lacklustre.
- Large domestic distilleries operated normally, while Hamburg terminal logistics intermittently influenced the Ethanol Price Index across supply hubs.
- Policy shifts raising GHG quotas and carbon certificate values supported precautionary buying, providing intermittent support to Ethanol Price Index.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in December 2025 in Europe?
- Improved import arrivals from US and ARA rebuilt inventories, exerting downward pressure on domestic spot Ethanol availability.
- Year-end discretionary buying slowed, while distributors delayed quota top-ups, reducing immediate demand and softening Price Index.
- Stable feedstock and energy costs removed cost-driven upside, while terminal congestion intermittently constrained regional flows.
South America
- In Brazil, the Ethanol Price Index rose by 2.9% quarter-over-quarter, supported by stronger blending mandates.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 763.33/MT, reflecting balanced supply and firm demand.
- Ethanol Spot Price volatility eased as harvest logistics improved, coastal FOB offers responded to terminal inventories.
- Ethanol Price Forecast points to mild softening near-term as steady harvest volumes and elevated carryover stocks weigh.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend improved as corn prices moderated and lower domestic freight and energy costs trimmed margins.
- Ethanol Demand Outlook remains constructive driven by higher blend mandates and surging export nominations to multiple markets.
- Domestic mills including Ra铆zen and BP bioenergy ran at high utilisation, keeping the Ethanol Price Index sensitive.
- Export demand spikes and distributor restocking influenced FOB availability, while port turnarounds moderated short-term Ethanol Spot Price movements.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in December 2025 in South America?
- In December, prices eased as steady cane and corn-ethanol production increased supply, pressuring FOB offers.
- Compressed听natural gas听discounts and fleet fuel switching reduced ethanol demand, weakening seasonal distributor procurement and spot bids.
- Adequate terminal inventories and eased port congestion allowed producers to lower offers, dampening short-term export arbitrage incentives.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
- In the USA, the Ethanol Price Index rose by 6.07% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting inventory draws nationwide.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 611.67/MT, based on FOB Houston.
- Ethanol Spot Price strengthened in summer as the Ethanol Price Index signaled tighter export-adjusted balances.
- Ethanol Price Forecast indicates rangebound movement, with upside risk from stronger seasonal blending and exports.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend was lower as abundant corn reduced feedstock-driven cost pressures for producers.
- Ethanol Demand Outlook supportive due to blending mandates and resilient gasoline consumption in driving season.
- Ethanol Price Index volatility was driven by shipment timing, plant outages, and shifting export competitiveness.
- Inventory draws into September tightened availability, amplifying export-related support and limiting domestic downward price pressure.
Why did the price of听Ethanol听change in September 2025 in North America?
- Seasonal inventory draws and stronger exports tightened domestic availability, lifting Ethanol Price Index in September.
- Ample corn harvest eased production costs, lowering Ethanol Production Cost Trend despite logistical delivery constraints.
- Blending mandates and domestic demand maintained baseline offtake, offsetting inventory builds and moderating price declines.
APAC
- In South Korea, the Ethanol Price Index rose by 3.52% quarter-over-quarter, driven by import costs.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 706.67/MT, reflecting import dependency seasonality.
- Ethanol Spot Price volatility reflected freight and feedstock swings, moving the domestic Ethanol Price Index.
- Ethanol Demand Outlook stayed firm thanks to SAF policy, gasoline blending, solvents and pharmaceutical consumption.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend increased as corn prices and naphtha-derived feedstock elevated synthetic, fermentation costs.
- Ethanol Price Forecast expects near-term rangebound action as inventories, imports and freight intermittently influence values.
- Ethanol Price Index upside was capped by inventories and downward arbitrage from abundant U.S. supplies.
- Operational continuity limited disruptions, but intermittent cargo shortages lifted Ethanol Spot Price and softened buying
Why did the price of Ethanol change in September 2025 in APAC?
- Ample U.S. corn supplies reduced feedstock costs, lowering import parity and pressuring landed ethanol values.
- Muted beverage offtake and seasonal slowdown weakened spot demand while baseline fuel blending sustained procurement.
- Freight rate volatility and intermittent cargo shortfalls elevated landed costs, producing episodic upward price pressure.
Europe
- In Germany, the Ethanol Price Index rose by 7.6% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting logistics-driven supply tightening and strong blending demand.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 721.67/MT, reflecting terminal differentials and seasonal blending effects.
- Ethanol Spot Price firmed at inland hubs amid berth delays, sustaining a tightening Ethanol Price Index narrative.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend rose as corn costs firmed, pressuring margins and supporting Price Index strength.
- Ethanol Demand Outlook remains robust from fuel blending and industrial solvents, underpinning spot tightness domestically.
- Ethanol Price Forecast indicates near-term firmness given logistics constraints and summer blending, though seasonal correction risks persist.
- Elevated yard occupancy and rail disruptions limited exports, reducing available volumes and amplifying Ethanol Spot Price sensitivity.
- Domestic facilities operated with steady runs, while trade measures altered import flows, shaping Ethanol Price Index.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in September 2025 in Europe?
- Rail and port bottlenecks constrained inland distribution, raising short-term scarcity and upward pressure on Ethanol Price Index.
- Tighter feedstock availability and higher energy costs increased production costs, lifting the Ethanol Production Cost Trend materially.
- Sustained blending demand and precautionary buying amid import uncertainty strengthened domestic offtake, supporting Ethanol Spot Price resilience.
South America
- In Brazil, the Ethanol Price Index rose by 2.68% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting stronger mandate-driven domestic demand.
- The average Ethanol price for the quarter was approximately USD 741.67/MT, reflecting domestic wholesale parity.
- Ethanol Spot Price strengthened as distributors replenished tanks after the E30 blend mandate increased gasoline substitution.
- Ethanol Price Forecast remains cautiously bullish amid sustained domestic uptake and tightening cane-based anhydrous availability.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend showed downward pressure from corn ethanol efficiency gains but cane shortages increased costs.
- Ethanol Demand Outlook improved sharply due to the 30% blending mandate adding substantial incremental annual consumption.
- Ethanol Price Index volatility moderated as inventories fluctuated and logistics remained uninterrupted in export corridors and ports.
- Ethanol market participants cited strengthening domestic procurement and ongoing strategic investments supporting Price Index resilience.
Why did the price of Ethanol change in September 2025 in South America?
- Mandated E30 injected over one billion liters of incremental domestic demand, driving distributor restocking.
- Centre-South cane disruptions tightened anhydrous availability while corn ethanol partly mitigated short-term supply.
- Export nominations and inventory draws tightened spot availability despite uninterrupted logistics, supporting firmer domestic prices.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
- North American Ethanol Price Index increased by 1% over Q1 2025 but eventually had a downward trend throughout Q2, with quarterly average valued at USD 593/MT, 99% FOB Texas, as the market weakened despite initial-quarter strength.
- Early price resiliency was underpinned by stable ethanol production cost patterns fueled by strong Midwest operating levels and robust plant efficiencies, especially in May when production rebounded to 1.056 million bpd.
- Nevertheless, oversupply worries increased as ethanol production reached an all-time high of 1.12 million bpd in early June, ahead of domestic and export demand, prompting downward revisions in the Ethanol Price Index at the end of the quarter.
- Ethanol demand outlook remained uneven throughout the quarter, with blending activity faltering mid-quarter due to regional slowdowns and weak gasoline consumption trends, though late-quarter East Coast demand showed mild recovery.
- Exports fluctuated, spiking in May but softening in June, adding to inventory overhangs; despite falling blender inputs, inventories remained historically elevated, reinforcing the bearish pressure on the Ethanol Price Index.
- The slight increase in Ethanol prices forecasted for July 2025 is likely to be driven by a combination of seasonal uptick in gasoline blending, tighter stock draws due to reduced output, and firm international buying interest after tariff-related trade disruptions stabilize.
- Ethanol Price Forecast indicates a cautiously bullish trend for July, contingent on continued moderation in production and improvement in domestic blending demand post-Q2 stagnation.
- Feedstock costs stayed moderate as corn futures remained subdued, offering stable ethanol production cost trends, though flat USDA projections for ethanol-use corn limited upside support from agricultural fundamentals.
Why did the price change in July 2025?
- The Ethanol Price Index is expected to rise in July 2025 due to seasonal gasoline blending recovery, reduced output tightening stock levels, and a potential rebound in export demand following tariff-related trade adjustments.
- In summary, Q2 witnessed an early uptick followed by a declining Ethanol Price Index due to oversupply, soft blending, and export volatility, while July 2025 holds potential for a mild rebound as domestic consumption steadies and production tightens.
APAC
- In Q2 2025, India鈥檚 Ethanol Price Index averaged USD 955/MT, Ex-Delhi NCR, reflecting a 0.5% decline from Q1 2025, with a mixed trend across the quarter鈥攑rices rose during early April and early May, then softened by late May and June.
- The Ethanol Price Index initially climbed on improved blending rates and increased government approvals for grain-based supply (e.g., 5.2 million tonnes of FCI rice), but later declined due to regional policy inconsistencies, added levies, and surplus output from new distilleries.
- Weak policy clarity, especially around post-E20 blending goals, further pressured prices in June, alongside cost burdens from state-level charges in Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh, straining the economics of grain ethanol producers.
Why did the price change in July 2025?
- Ethanol prices in India are forecasted to rise as summer blending demand intensifies, policy clarity supports grain-based supply economics, and improved plant utilization aligns with stronger maize procurement and firmer global oil prices.
- Throughout Q2, Ethanol Demand Outlook remained steady, anchored by the EBP Programme nearing its 20% blending target, with demand driven by oil marketing companies and stable procurement from the transport, industry, and food sectors.
- While ethanol production cost trend was broadly stable due to government subsidies and diverse feedstock availability (including maize, broken rice, and stubble), state-imposed fees and logistical disruptions raised localised production costs.
- Grain-based ethanol gained share over sugarcane-based variants, supported by government support and concerns over water-intensive sugarcane, especially in Maharashtra and Karnataka following poor 2023 monsoons.
- Investments in distilleries like Zuari鈥檚 upcoming 180 KLPD plant and Amul鈥檚 dairy-waste-based ethanol projects reflected rising long-term confidence, although utilisation gaps persisted due to pricing and feedstock volatility.
- Ethanol Price Forecast for July 2025 points to a likely increase, driven by higher summer blending demand, improved plant efficiency, and anticipated policy clarity favouring grain-based ethanol; maize procurement from key states and rising oil prices may also support prices.
Europe
- Ethanol Price Index in Germany declined 2% in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025, with the quarterly average assessed at USD 726/MT, FD Frankfurt, reflecting soft demand fundamentals and logistics-driven supply volatility.
Why did the price change in July 2025?
- Ethanol prices in Germany are predicted to climb in July 2025, driven by stricter GHG reduction mandates, reduced certificate carryover allowances, and ongoing logistics bottlenecks鈥攅specially rail disruptions near Hamburg鈥攍imiting short-term supply.
- The Ethanol Price trend showed mixed movements across the quarter, initially retreating due to subdued demand in early April, stabilizing in May amid port disruptions and then recovering slightly by late June as regulatory compliance boosted blending volumes.
- The Ethanol Demand Outlook remained subdued for most of Q2; fuel blending saw a temporary dip during early spring due to cooler weather and muted gasoline consumption, while industrial and beverage-grade usage held steady but failed to drive price support.
- The Ethanol Production Cost Trend remained elevated throughout Q2, driven by high wheat and corn input prices, further impacted by poor harvests in parts of Europe and energy-related inflation in the early weeks, although easing slightly by end-June.
- Port congestion and rail transport disruptions, especially at Hamburg and Bremerhaven, persisted through Q2, causing occasional delays in imports and domestic distribution, though strategic stock management helped stabilize local supply conditions.
- Imports from the Americas and intra-EU flows remained active, helping meet domestic demand despite infrastructural bottlenecks; however, market sentiment was dampened by concerns over potential tariff circumvention via UK-U.S. ethanol trade flows.
- Ethanol Price Forecast for July 2025 indicates a likely increase, supported by the implementation of stricter GHG reduction mandates and the phasing out of certificate carryovers, which is expected to boost ethanol blending demand and strain supply.
- The Q2 trend reflects a well-supplied but cautious market environment, with the Ethanol Price Index being relatively stable despite macroeconomic uncertainty and downstream buyers adopting hand-to-mouth purchasing strategies.
- July 2025 may also see upward pressure on the Ethanol Price Index due to higher Ethanol Production Cost Trend and ongoing logistical constraints, particularly linked to scheduled rail closures at Hamburg鈥檚 Waltershof terminal.
South America
- Ethanol Price Index in Brazil declined 3% from Q1 2025, with Q2 assessed at USD 704/MT, Anhydrous FOB Santos, reflecting a mixed trend鈥攊nitial increases in April followed by sustained downward corrections through June.
Why is did the price change in July 2025?
- Ethanol prices in Brazil are set to increase due to the government's confirmed hike in the national ethanol blending mandate from 27% to 30%, which is expected to tighten the supply-demand balance and enhance blending economics ahead of the policy鈥檚 August rollout.
- Early in Q2, Ethanol Price rose on the back of robust sugarcane crushing and surging corn ethanol output, supported by policy discussions to raise the national ethanol blend from 27% to 30%, reinforcing positive sentiment in the Ethanol Demand Outlook.
- Strong corn-based ethanol production, especially in Mato Grosso and Goi谩s, and improved logistics, including new pipeline and rail infrastructure, temporarily tightened supply, lifting the Ethanol Price Index to a peak of USD 748/MT in mid-May.
- However, from late May onward, prices began to ease due to higher inventory levels, weaker hydrous ethanol demand, and logistical backlogs at key ports. Export volumes remained steady but were insufficient to offset slack domestic consumption.
- Ethanol Production Cost Trend remained elevated due to early-season feedstock competition, but efficient distillery operations and scale-up in DDGS by-product exports to China offered some cost mitigation and long-term upside.
- Domestic Ethanol Demand Outlook was pressured by limited pump price advantage over gasoline, lagging hydrous sales, and subdued economic activity; retail fuel sales dipped year-on-year in several states, notably in the Northeast.
- Brazil鈥檚 growing push into DDGS exports and corn ethanol infrastructure signaled strategic market diversification but marginally redirected focus from ethanol, easing tightness in Q2 and contributing to price softness by end-June.
- Ethanol Price Forecast for July 2025 indicates an increase, driven by the Brazilian government鈥檚 confirmed decision to implement a higher 30% ethanol blend mandate from August 1, 2025. This policy will likely tighten supply-demand dynamics and improve blending economics, lifting the Price Index in the near term.
