For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
鈥� The Jet Kerosene Price Index in North America showed a mild upward trend during Q3 2025, supported by stronger demand from commercial aviation, military operations, and domestic heating sectors.
鈥� Spot Price activity remained firm throughout the quarter, with prices climbing toward the end of September. This was driven by seasonal travel demand and increased procurement from airlines preparing for Q4 operations.
鈥� Prices increased in September due to a combination of higher jet fuel consumption, seasonal heating demand, and tight inventory control by refiners. Despite stable crude oil benchmarks, regional supply constraints and logistical costs contributed to the uptick.
鈥� The Production Cost Trend remained relatively stable, with refiners benefiting from steady crude oil input prices and efficient throughput. However, localized transportation and storage costs added marginal pressure to overall margins.
鈥� The Demand Outlook for Jet Kerosene in North America was optimistic, with airline activity rebounding and military procurement remaining consistent. Heating fuel demand also began to rise as colder weather approached, supporting broader consumption.
Why did the price of Jet Kerosene change in September 2025 in North America?
鈥� Increased aviation and heating demand drove procurement activity higher.
鈥� Stable production costs and tight inventory management supported price discipline.
鈥� Logistical constraints and seasonal factors contributed to the modest price increase.
APAC
鈥� In India, the Jet Kerosene Price Index rose by 2.08% quarter-over-quarter, driven by crude benchmarks.
鈥� The average Jet Kerosene price for the quarter was approximately USD 961.96/MT, inclusive of logistics.
鈥� East Asian exports to Europe reduced available volumes, tightening Jet Kerosene Spot Price for India.
鈥� Jet Kerosene Price Forecast indicates volatility as seasonal demand recovery competes with crude price drivers.
鈥� Jet Kerosene Production Cost Trend shows increases from refining margins, feedstock costs, and elevated shipping.
鈥� Jet Kerosene Demand Outlook indicates recovery driven by festival travel, though SAF blending restrains volumes.
鈥� Inventory buffers supported Jet Kerosene Price Index stability despite import competition and refinery allocation changes.
鈥� Export demand from Europe tightened local supply, pressuring margins and prompting stock draws by refiners.
Why did the price of Jet Kerosene change in September 2025 in APAC?
鈥� Stronger international crude benchmarks increased input costs, transmitting higher import parity prices to domestic markets.
鈥� Tighter East Asian exports to Europe reduced available imports, tightening supply and lifting spot differentials.
鈥� Rising freight and logistics costs with seasonal demand recovery eroded inventories and pressured domestic pricing.
Europe
鈥� The Jet Kerosene Price Index in Europe showed a modest upward trend during Q3 2025, supported by increased air travel and seasonal heating demand. This marked a continuation of the recovery seen since early 2025, although growth remained moderate.
鈥� Spot Price activity firmed through the quarter, particularly in September, as airlines ramped up procurement ahead of the autumn travel season. Prices were also influenced by tighter supply from refiners prioritizing diesel and gasoline output.
鈥� Prices increased in September due to a combination of higher aviation fuel consumption, seasonal heating needs, and refinery output adjustments. While crude oil benchmarks remained relatively stable, logistical constraints and regional supply tightness contributed to the price rise.
鈥� The Production Cost Trend remained steady, with refiners benefiting from stable Brent crude prices and efficient throughput. However, localized energy costs and carbon compliance expenses added marginal pressure to refining margins.
鈥� The Demand Outlook for Jet Kerosene in Europe was positive, driven by commercial aviation, military operations, and domestic heating. The rebound in international travel and cargo flights provided consistent support, while heating oil blending added seasonal demand.
Why did the price of Jet Kerosene change in September 2025 in Europe?
鈥� Increased aviation and heating demand drove procurement activity higher.
鈥� Stable production costs and refinery output shifts supported price firmness.
鈥� Logistical constraints and seasonal factors contributed to the modest price increase.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
鈥� Jet Kerosene spot prices in North America remained in a muted pricing environment during Q2 2025, reflecting limited market momentum compared to the same period in 2024.
鈥� Despite modest strength in crude oil prices, jet fuel prices remained largely subdued, pressured by ample refinery output, elevated inventory levels, and measured airline procurement.
鈥� In June 2025, the spot price index rose 8.6% month-over-month, marking the first monthly increase since January, though still 12.5% lower year-over-year. This shift was driven by seasonal demand and speculative buying, even as market fundamentals remained soft.
鈥� Airline fuel consumption throughout Q2 stayed below 2024 benchmarks. In April, usage was down 18% year-over-year, and fuel costs per gallon declined by 3.8% compared to March, despite rising passenger traffic.
鈥� Supply-side conditions remained supportive. Gulf Coast refiners reported stable operations with no major disruptions, while steady import flows鈥攏otably from Nigeria鈥檚 Dangote refinery and Russia鈥攈elped offset any supply-side risk.
鈥� Industry focus continued to shift toward Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). Although SAF availability remains limited, the influence of upcoming policy mandates and ESG compliance goals is gradually reshaping procurement strategies and applying structural pressure on conventional jet fuel demand.
Why did the price of Jet Kerosene change in July 2025 in USA?
鈥� In July 2025, the U.S. Jet Kerosene Spot Price Index recorded a modest increase month-over-month, although it remained lower year-over-year, reflecting the broader downward trend in aviation fuel prices.
鈥� The monthly uptick aligned with seasonal growth in travel activity, particularly during the peak summer period, which supported a slight rise in fuel consumption.
鈥� Refinery operations across key production hubs remained stable, with no major outages reported. This ensured a steady output of jet fuel and helped contain cost-side pressures.
鈥� Import volumes鈥攏otably from Nigeria鈥檚 Dangote Refinery鈥攃ontinued to supplement U.S. supply, enhancing market balance during the high-demand season and alleviating price volatility.
APAC
鈥� The Jet Kerosene Spot Price in India declined modestly in Q2 2025, continuing a downward trend that began in May, largely driven by reduced demand due to the early arrival of the monsoon season.
鈥� Despite an uptick in upstream Crude Oil prices, the Jet Kerosene Price Index trended lower, indicating limited cost pass-through due to abundant domestic inventories and stable refining activity.
鈥� Supply conditions remained favorable with steady production, robust logistical infrastructure, and uninterrupted crude inflows from the U.S., Brazil, and Russia, ensuring balanced availability.
鈥� Downstream consumption was softened by decreased air travel and mobility, although overall fuel demand, including LPG and petrol, showed resilience.
鈥� Policy developments around Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) adoption鈥攖argeting a 1% blend in 2025鈥攕ignal an evolving demand landscape for conventional jet fuel.
Why does the price of Jet Kerosene change in July 2025 in APAC?
鈥� During July 2025, the prices of Jet kerosene increased听 as major manufacturers increased their prices.
鈥� The price reversal in July was largely triggered by increases in international crude oil benchmarks, particularly geopolitical tensions following Israeli鈥揑ran escalation 听
鈥� India relies heavily on import parity pricing; therefore, international crude price surges and a weaker Indian rupee (鈮執�2.5% weaker vs. July 2024) amplified domestic fuel costs
Europe
鈥� During Q2 2025, the Jet Kerosene Spot Price in Europe remained volatile, influenced by regulatory changes, increased imports, and geopolitical uncertainties. While demand improved gradually, evolving fuel sourcing requirements reshaped overall market behavior.
鈥� A key structural shift was the rollout of the ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation, which implemented a 2% Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) blending mandate beginning in 2025. This regulation signals the EU's long-term strategy to reach 70% SAF usage by 2050.
鈥� In June 2025, the aviation sector experienced operational challenges in adopting SAF. Though sourcing and blending logistics exerted some upward price pressure, increased jet fuel exports from Northeast Asia, encouraged by lower freight costs and Middle Eastern supply concerns, helped stabilize conventional jet fuel prices.
鈥� In May 2025, the focus remained on scaling up SAF supply. However, limited availability of advanced SAF types鈥攑articularly synthetic e-fuels鈥攈ighlighted supply-demand mismatches, posing risks to blending economics and future price formation.
鈥� In April 2025, Europe's jet fuel market faced the initial effects of SAF integration while also dealing with global supply chain disruptions. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East and logistical delays contributed to buyer caution and hindered seamless fuel procurement.
鈥� Despite regulatory momentum, market participants encountered challenges due to supply constraints, limited SAF infrastructure, and high production costs. These factors led to procurement inefficiencies and moderate pricing volatility throughout the quarter.
Why does the price of Jet Kerosene change in July 2025 in Europe?
鈥� Jet fuel spot prices in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean surged in July 2025, reversing previous trends of price stability.
鈥� The price spike was largely driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Iran鈥揑srael conflict, which raised concerns over supply chain reliability.
鈥� These concerns contributed to a ~45% increase in regional jet fuel premiums, according to industry sources.
鈥� Diesel premiums surpassed jet fuel premiums for the first time since early 2023, altering middle distillate market dynamics.
鈥� The shift was fueled by tight gas oil supply, which reduced arbitrage flows and led traders to prioritize diesel in their pricing strategies.
鈥� Overall, these developments introduced increased volatility and reshaped pricing behavior across refined fuel markets in Europe.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
The North American Jet Kerosene market witnessed notable volatility during Q1 2025, with the United States being the most significantly impacted region. According to data released by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), U.S. scheduled service airlines consumed 1.453 billion gallons of fuel in January 2025, reflecting an 8.9% decrease compared to December 2024 (1.594 billion gallons) and a 0.6% decline from January 2020, pre-pandemic levels.
In February 2025, fuel consumption further declined to 1.356 billion gallons, down 6.7% from January 2025 but 2.0% higher than in February 2020. The average cost per gallon increased marginally by 3 cents (1.1%) between January and February 2025. Despite early quarter price firmness, the market experienced downward pressure in March 2025. This was primarily attributed to a sharp rise in imports from Nigeria鈥檚 Dangote refinery, which added approximately 1.7 million barrels of jet fuel to U.S. inventories鈥攎arking the highest import level since February 2023.听
This influx, coupled with already robust domestic inventories and moderating demand growth, contributed to the overall decline in Jet Kerosene prices towards the end of the quarter.
APAC
During the first quarter of 2025, Jet Kerosene prices in India experienced a fluctuating trajectory shaped by evolving demand and stable supply dynamics. In January, prices declined amid subdued aviation demand, reflected in a drop in new vehicle registrations and broader economic uncertainty. However, demand partially recovered later in the month due to increased air travel during the Kumbh Mela. February witnessed a brief price surge, supported by heightened aviation activity during the festive and holiday season. Despite firm demand, prices remained relatively controlled due to sufficient domestic inventories and stable crude oil availability. Notably, the launch of the India SAF Alliance during India Climate Week in February highlighted a national push toward sustainable aviation fuels, potentially signaling a long-term decline in conventional jet fuel consumption. In March, Jet Kerosene prices registered a modest decline, largely due to fluctuations in international crude oil prices, which helped lower production costs. Strong manufacturing activity and efficient energy management also ensured ample supply, limiting upward price pressure. Overall, Q1 ended with a mild downward price trend, underpinned by steady supply conditions and emerging market transitions.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2025, the European Jet Kerosene market remained under sustained pressure, with prices facing downward momentum due to a confluence of regulatory, supply, and trade-related factors. A key development impacting the market was the implementation of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) mandates across the European Union and the United Kingdom, effective from January 1, 2025. These mandates require a minimum blending of 2% SAF with conventional jet fuel, as part of broader efforts to decarbonize the aviation sector. While the immediate impact on fossil jet fuel demand was modest, the policy signaled a structural shift in fuel consumption patterns. A more pronounced effect is anticipated later in the year, as suppliers ramp up compliance with blending requirements. Simultaneously, international trade dynamics also influenced market fundamentals. The premium of Northwest European jet fuel over Singaporean grades narrowed to its lowest point in three years, prompting some cargoes to be redirected toward Asia. This eastward redirection of supply contributed to easing inventory pressures within the European market, further reinforcing the bearish pricing environment throughout the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the North American Jet Kerosene market experienced significant price fluctuations. During the initial two months of the quarter, prices surged due to heightened demand from the aviation sector. Increased travel and airline activity placed pressure on refiners, unable to fully meet the rising demand.听
Geopolitical tensions also contributed to higher crude oil prices, which further impacted Jet Kerosene pricing. Moreover, insights from market participants indicated that airfares had not fully kept pace with inflation, particularly in comparison to the rising costs of jet fuel.
By December 2024, however, Jet Kerosene prices saw a slight decline. This was attributed to moderate fluctuations in crude oil prices and sufficient supply, with traders having strategically stockpiled inventories. Anticipating a dip in aviation demand post-holiday season, inventories helped stabilize the market. The decline in prices was expected to continue as reduced consumption during the festive period led to lower demand for Jet Kerosene, signaling further price adjustments in the coming months.
Asia-Pacific
In Q4 2024, Jet Kerosene prices in the Asian market exhibited upward trends, driven by robust demand and shifting supply dynamics. In India, prices rose by 1.4% in December, despite fluctuating crude oil prices, due to strong aviation fuel demand. This was reflected in a 6.8% year-on-year increase in Air Traffic Fuel (ATF) sales, supported by a 5.2% month-on-month rise compared to November. The demand surge, coupled with stable feedstock costs, tightened the supply-demand balance in the Indian market, signaling continued pressure on prices. During November, Jet Kerosene prices also increased, fueled by higher export demand from key Asian markets such as Singapore and Malaysia, where imports of Indian jet fuel reached multi-year highs. This demand spike, combined with strategic export diversions and rising domestic consumption, put upward pressure on prices. India鈥檚 consumption reached historic levels, driven by peak air travel during the holiday season. Despite lower crude oil prices, India鈥檚 position as a critical supplier in Asia, bolstered by strategic adjustments and increasing exports, helped stabilize the regional market. These trends, alongside strong consumption patterns and global supply chain shifts, suggest that Jet Kerosene prices in Asia are likely to remain elevated in the short term.
听Europe
The European Jet Kerosene market faced challenging conditions in the final quarter of 2024, driven by several key factors. A notable increase in supply from Middle Eastern and Indian refineries contributed to the shift in market dynamics. According to Eurostat data, EU jet fuel demand showed a slight year-on-year rise of 0.7% from January to July 2024, indicating a steady yet subdued demand. As a result, the price premium for northwest European jet fuel over Singaporean jet fuel reached its narrowest point in three years, prompting a shift in trade flows. In recent months, European jet fuel has been increasingly shipped to Asia, with Singaporean prices surpassing European levels by late November. Despite these developments, market participants remain optimistic about the European supply outlook. They do not anticipate any significant tightness in the supply of jet fuel in the region, as increased refinery capacity and stable demand are expected to balance out market conditions moving forward. While pricing trends have become more aligned with Asian markets, Europe鈥檚 jet fuel market remains stable, with no major concerns of shortages expected in the near term.
