For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
Polyol prices in North America showed a Positive momentum in Q1 2025, driven by stable production, moderate demand, and supply chain disruptions. In February, Polyol prices increased due to disruptions from an Arctic blast, which caused production setbacks, particularly from "freeze-offs" and port congestion. Despite easing Propylene and propane prices, upstream cost support remained stable, and the automotive sector experienced modest growth with a recovery in vehicle and electric vehicle sales, boosting Polyol demand. The construction sector, however, faced mixed performance, with inflationary pressures, labor shortages, and rising homebuilding costs limiting growth.
Trade disruptions, especially related to tariffs, also played a role in price dynamics. President Trump's measures to raise tariffs, particularly on imports from Mexico and Canada, contributed to pricing uncertainty. The U.S. trade deficit, coupled with concerns over potential tariffs on chemical imports, further influenced market conditions.
By the end of Q1, Polyol prices continued to rise due to ongoing supply chain issues and increased demand from the automotive sector. Despite challenges, Polyol consumption remained steady in the automotive and construction industries. In the latter half of Q1, while supply chain conditions showed slight improvement, uncertainties surrounding trade tensions and rising material costs in construction remained key factors impacting demand.
APAC
During the first quarter of 2025, the Polyol market in Asia experienced a mix of stable production and fluctuating demand. The quarter started with steady Polyol production in China and strong export growth. However, demand from key sectors, particularly automotive and construction, was weak, leading to downward price pressures. In the mid-quarter, Polyol prices fell as stock availability increased after the Lunar New Year holidays, coupled with reduced demand and lower feedstock Propylene Oxide costs. Throughout the quarter, supply disruptions in Asia, such as port congestion and rising crude oil prices, increased production costs and led to higher regional inventories. Despite these challenges, demand for Polyol in Southeast Asia remained steady, with growth in the electric vehicle sector in China supporting Polyol demand for Polyurethane (PU) materials. Conversely, China鈥檚 struggling property market and declining automotive production limited demand. In the concluding month, Polyol prices recovered slightly due to supply limitations and rising crude oil prices, but overall demand remained mixed. Trade tensions, particularly U.S.-China tariff disputes, also affected export growth. Overall, Q1 2025 was marked by a volatile market, with strong export performance tempered by regional demand challenges, creating a cautious outlook for Polyol in the coming months.
Europe
Like the North American region, the Polyol market in Europe exhibited a bullish trend, driven by steady production, supply chain disruptions, and consistent demand from the automotive sector. Early in the quarter, production remained stable as the Eurozone鈥檚 manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery, despite challenges such as weather disruptions and port delays. These factors contributed to upward pressure on prices. Demand from the automotive industry, supported by growth in production and exports, helped maintain steady Polyol consumption, while the construction sector faced difficulties due to high inflation, material costs, and interest rates. In the mid-quarter, geopolitical factors and extreme weather events, including an Arctic blast in North America, led to disruptions in Propylene Oxide supplies, further increasing prices. Additionally, labor strikes at major European ports, such as Rotterdam and Le Havre, caused delays and rerouted shipments, adding to supply strain. Despite these challenges, the automotive sector鈥檚 steady growth and recovery in the Italian construction market helped support demand for Polyol-based materials. Towards the end of Q1, Polyol prices continued to rise due to persistent supply chain issues and steady demand in the automotive and construction sectors. The market remained cautious, influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions, but growth in electric vehicle production and improving conditions in Italy's construction sector provided optimism.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the Polyol market saw a 6% decrease compared to the previous quarter, driven by mixed demand and supply chain disruptions. Polyol production remained stable, supported by moderate feedstock availability, although fluctuations in Propylene Oxide prices and upstream Propylene costs affected cost dynamics. Exports slowed, particularly to Europe and Australia, due to weaker global demand and a downturn in U.S. manufacturing activity.
Demand for downstream PU materials from the construction sector was sluggish, influenced by high inventory levels and rising material costs, particularly in the furniture industry. Conversely, the automotive sector showed resilience, with increased vehicle sales supporting steady Polyol demand.
By December, despite stable domestic demand in the automotive and coatings sectors, Polyol exports declined, with new business orders and international market activity weakening. The winter season saw higher demand for heating, pushing up Propane prices and providing some support for Polyol production costs. However, with weaker global demand and slower export growth, the market experienced a 6% decline compared to the previous quarter.
APAC
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the Polyol market in Japan experienced no change in prices compared to the previous quarter, with stability across demand and supply dynamics. Production remained steady, supported by moderate feedstock availability, and feedstock Propylene Oxide prices stabilized amid fluctuations in upstream prices. Shipping disruptions from Typhoon Kong-Rey and weak Far East exports slightly impacted supply levels, but the overall supply to importers remained manageable. Demand for Polyol showed mixed results. The construction sector saw strong demand, driven by a significant increase in construction orders, while the automotive sector faced a decline due to reduced vehicle sales. Despite these mixed trends, Polyol prices remained unchanged due to steady production and moderate costs influenced by rising crude oil prices. Supply chains gradually stabilized, and although export volumes were lower and automotive demand weakened, the overall market conditions did not lead to significant price fluctuations. As a result, Polyol prices held firm through the quarter, reflecting a balance between stable production and moderated demand from key sectors.
Europe
Like the North American region, in the fourth quarter of 2024, the Polyol market saw a 6% decline compared to the previous quarter, reflecting ongoing challenges in demand and supply dynamics. Polyol production remained stable, supported by moderate feedstock availability, although disruptions at key European ports and rail congestion impacted supply chains. Feedstock Propylene Oxide prices held steady due to fluctuations in upstream crude oil prices and shifting demand from downstream industries. Demand for Polyol varied across sectors. The construction industry continued to face subdued demand, driven by reduced activity and economic uncertainty. In contrast, the automotive sector saw increased demand, particularly due to higher new car registrations. However, this was not enough to offset the overall market decline. Polyol prices remained relatively stable, with minimal fluctuation driven by supply chain disruptions and moderate feedstock availability. The overall Eurozone manufacturing downturn and inflationary pressures contributed to weakened demand in key sectors. In the construction sector, activity remained sluggish, while automotive demand, though slightly stronger, also showed signs of slowing. These factors combined led to a 6% decrease in Polyol prices from the previous quarter.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
Throughout Q3 2024, the Polyol pricing in the North American region remained stable, with no significant fluctuations observed. Various factors contributed to this stable pricing environment. The demand for Polyol was moderate, primarily driven by consistent consumption in downstream industries such as construction and manufacturing. Supply levels were adequate to meet this demand, leading to a balanced market scenario. Additionally, stable cost support from feedstock Propylene Oxide further contributed to the equilibrium in Polyol prices.聽
In the middle of the third quarter, Polyol production rates were hampered because of the stressed availability of feedstocks in the region. The offtakes were moderate, and market players raised their quotations marginally, however the market dynamics remain stable.
With a percentage change of -24% from the same quarter last year and no change from the previous quarter in 2024, the market exhibited a sense of stability. The price remained constant between the first and second half of the quarter, indicating a lack of significant fluctuations. The quarter-ending price of USD 2140/MT of Polyether Polyol MW 3000, 碌 400-650 FOB Texas in the USA reflected the prevailing stable pricing sentiment in the region.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Polyol market in the APAC region has been characterized by a fluctuating pricing environment. The quarter has witnessed significant influences from several factors such as increased upstream Propylene costs due to fluctuating crude oil prices, moderate demand from downstream industries, and improved manufacturing activities. The market's dynamics were further complicated by supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil imports, leading to variable feedstock availability. During the mid-quarter, the looming concerns about a recession in the US affected the international crude oil market and refinery operation. It stressed the upstream Propylene supplies and Polyol production rates. Polyol prices fluctuated and rose marginally, and the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed a negative change of 1%. Towards the end of the quarter, the increased availability of feedstock Propylene oxide supplies, driven by improved refinery operations and Crude Oil availability amid a resumption of Crude Oil supply from Libya in September 2024, negatively impacted the production costs. Simultaneously, offtakes for moderately low from the PU segment during the period. Conclusively, from the previous quarter in 2024, prices fell by 8%, indicating a downward trend. Polyether Polyol MW 3000 FOB-Osaka prices in Japan settled at USD 1230/MT at the end of quarter 3 of 2024.
Europe
During the third quarter of 2024, the European Polyol market was driven predominantly by a confluence of factors impacting supply and demand dynamics. Throughout the quarter, the sluggish demand from the downstream industries, particularly polyurethane manufacturers, due to reduced construction activities and a shift towards bio-based materials negatively influenced the market dynamics. Moreover, the oversupply situation, exacerbated by cautious purchasing behavior amid rising inflation and economic uncertainties, further pressured prices. The automotive sector, traditionally a significant consumer of polyurethane products, also contributed to the weakened demand as vehicle sales remained subdued. Additionally, the manufacturing sector faced challenges, with the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI indicating declining new orders and rising costs, further dampened demand. Supply-side dynamics also played a role, as supply availability improved post-summer holidays, yet demand failed to match this increase, exacerbating inventory levels. Seasonality played a crucial role, as the summer holidays typically result in reduced industrial activities, subsequently decreasing demand. Consequently, the first and second half of the quarter saw a 4% decrease, reflecting a consistent negative pricing environment throughout the period. The quarter concluded with a Polyether MW 3000, 碌 400-650 FOB Hamburg price at USD 1560/MT in Germany, after an overall 11% drop from the last quarter's prices, underscoring the negative sentiment pervading the Polyol market, driven by both external economic pressures and internal market dynamics.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Polyol market saw fluctuating prices due to several converging factors. A significant drop in demand from the construction sector, coupled with ample supply levels, has exerted downward pressure on prices. The slowdown in the construction industry has led to reduced consumption of PU materials made from Polyol. Additionally, the sluggish performance of the automotive sector has further decreased offtakes, contributing to the decline in prices. Feedstock prices, particularly Propylene Oxide, have remained relatively low, offering minimal cost support to Polyol producers.
In the USA, where price volatility was most pronounced, the overall trend has been consistently negative. Seasonal factors also played a role; anticipated increases in demand during the monsoon season for PU sole footwear did not materialize, further suppressing prices. The relationship between upstream feedstock prices and Polyol prices remained strong, with minor fluctuations in Propylene Oxide costs reflected in Polyol pricing. Compared to the same quarter last year, Polyol prices plummeted by 35%, indicating significant overcapacity and subdued demand. Prices also fell by 1% from the previous quarter in 2024, demonstrating ongoing bearish sentiment. The first half of Q2 saw a sharper decline of 5% compared to the latter half, highlighting the continued weakening of market conditions as the quarter progressed.
By the end of Q2 2024, Polyether Polyol MW 3000, 碌 400-650 FOB Texas was priced at USD 2140/MT. This substantial decrease reflects a predominantly negative pricing environment, driven by weak demand, sufficient supply, and stable yet low feedstock costs. The overall sentiment remains negative, with little prospect for a near-term recovery without a significant increase in market demand.
APAC
In the second quarter of 2024, Polyol pricing in the APAC region experienced notable shifts due to a combination of economic and sectoral factors. The market saw increased volatility, primarily due to subdued demand from the construction and automotive industries, which are crucial to Polyol consumption. This decline in demand was worsened by an oversupply, with manufacturers struggling with excess inventory due to inconsistent offtake rates. Additionally, fluctuations in upstream Propylene and Naphtha costs, essential for Polyol production, added downward pressure on prices. Overall, the sentiment was negative as market participants dealt with supply chain uncertainties and varying input costs. In Japan, the most significant price changes were observed. Seasonal factors, including lower demand during off-peak months and reduced construction activity, heavily impacted the Polyol market. Prices in Japan dropped sharply, with a 9% decrease compared to the same quarter last year, highlighting a broader market contraction. From the previous quarter in 2024, prices fell by 3%, reflecting ongoing bearish sentiment throughout the period. A comparison of the first and second halves of the quarter revealed a 9% price drop, indicating a steady decline in market momentum. By the end of the quarter, Polyether Polyol MW 3000 FOB-Osaka was priced at USD 1260/MT, underscoring the overall negative trend. This pricing environment reflects a challenging quarter for Polyol, marked by negative market forces, supply-demand imbalances, and raw material cost volatility.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the Polyol price trend in Europe fluctuated, with notable shifts occurring mid-quarter. Initially, prices were stable with a slight increase due to reduced production rates from limited feedstock supplies. However, demand from the Polyurethane segment remained weak. Mid-quarter, a reduction in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and improved feedstock availability revitalized manufacturing activities in the region. Despite this, subdued demand from key end-use sectors, particularly construction and automotive industries, remained a significant factor. The construction sector faced prolonged downturns due to declining investment sentiment, while the automotive sector experienced a notable drop in car sales, leading to decreased consumption of Polyurethane materials. Additionally, an ample supply of feedstock Propylene Oxide, driven by reduced offtakes from regional Glycol manufacturers, further pressured Polyol production costs downward, resulting in an oversupplied market with stagnant demand. Germany saw the most significant price changes within the region. The overall trend was marked by a bearish sentiment, influenced by seasonal factors and economic conditions. The ongoing decline in automotive sector consumption was a key factor, with manufacturing and new orders contracting more than expected. Compared to the same quarter last year, Polyol prices plummeted by a staggering 35%, reflecting broader market struggles. Prices remained stable from the previous quarter, showing no percentage change, indicating that the market had adjusted to lower demand levels. However, a closer examination reveals a 6% price decline between the first and second halves of the quarter, highlighting a consistent weakening trend. By the end of Q2 2024, Polyether MW 3000, 碌 400-650 FOB Hamburg in Germany was priced at USD 1760/MT. The pricing environment remained decidedly negative, driven by market oversupply and waning demand, resulting in a significantly bearish outlook for the Polyol market in Europe.
