For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
鈥� In the USA, the Potassium Chloride Price Index fell by 5.64% quarter-over-quarter, overall seasonal weakness.
鈥� The average Potassium Chloride price for the quarter was approximately USD 401.33/MT, delivered Illinois basis.
鈥� Tight Gulf inventories and logistical delays limited availability, keeping the Potassium Chloride Spot Price firm.
鈥� Near-term Potassium Chloride Price Forecast shows upside risk as restocking meets steady Canadian import flows.
鈥� Stable energy pricing preserved the Potassium Chloride Production Cost Trend, limiting immediate cost-driven upward pressure.
鈥� Potassium Chloride Demand Outlook remains supportive due to increased corn acreage and early-season restocking programs.
鈥� Lower New Orleans stocks and prioritized contracted shipments kept the Potassium Chloride Price Index elevated.
鈥� Tariff uncertainty and shipping delays continue influencing the Potassium Chloride Price Forecast and market sentiment.
Why did the price of Potassium Chloride change in September 2025 in North America?
鈥� Reduced seasonal buying and cautious procurement lowered demand, contributing to downward pressure on Potassium Chloride.
鈥� Improved rail logistics restored flows to Gulf terminals, easing shortages and tempering spot price recovery.
鈥� Canadian contracted shipments remained prioritized, limiting spot availability while tariff uncertainty influenced short-term purchasing decisions.
APAC
鈥� In Indonesia, the Potassium Chloride Price Index rose by 8.4% quarter-over-quarter, driven by export constraints.
鈥� The average Potassium Chloride price for the quarter was approximately USD 378.33/MT, supporting restocking efforts.
鈥� Potassium Chloride Spot Price remained firm as prompt cargoes were scarce and buyers prioritized coverage.
鈥� Potassium Chloride Price Forecast shows near-term firmness before seasonal normalization as contracted arrivals improve availability.
鈥� Potassium Chloride Production Cost Trend rose as freight, insurance, and logistics increased landed cost pressures.
鈥� Potassium Chloride Demand Outlook remains strong as palm oil margins encourage full-dose fertilization and restocking.
鈥� Potassium Chloride Price Index rose amid thin port inventories and delayed shipments, restricting prompt availability.
鈥� Limited Canada, Russia supply plus Pupuk tender dynamics sustained firm offers and constrained spot availability.
Why did the price of Potassium Chloride change in September 2025 in APAC?
鈥� Delayed Russian and Canadian shipments constrained prompt supply, raising landed costs and tightening regional availability.
鈥� Strong palm oil margins prompted aggressive restocking, rapidly depleting port inventories, and elevating procurement urgency.
鈥� Elevated freight, insurance, and port congestion increased landed costs, amplifying offers and discouraging prompt allocations.
Europe
鈥� In Germany, the Potassium Chloride Price Index rose by 7.12% quarter-over-quarter, driven by export restocking.
鈥� The average Potassium Chloride price for the quarter was approximately USD 501.67/MT, reflecting tight availability.
鈥� Potassium Chloride Spot Price firmed as limited spot volumes and port congestion reduced immediate availability.
鈥� Potassium Chloride Price Forecast shows modest upside risk as restocking ahead of autumn supports bids.
鈥� Potassium Chloride Production Cost Trend remained stable with eased gas prices and settled labor agreements.
鈥� Potassium Chloride Demand Outlook supported by Brazilian and French restocking despite seasonal European buying delays.
鈥� German producers ran at high utilization while freight constraints and shipping delays tightened export allocations.
鈥� Traders held firm offers anticipating autumn procurement, reinforcing a resilient market tone despite subdued demand.
Why did the price of Potassium Chloride change in September 2025 in Europe?
鈥� Strong export demand from Brazil and France reduced spot availability, applying upward pressure on prices.
鈥� Temporary rail disruptions and Hamburg port congestion constrained shipments, elevating short-term scarcity and price support.
鈥� Eased gas and settled labor limited production cost pressures, preventing price corrections despite tighter exports
MEA
鈥� In Jordan, the Potassium Chloride Price Index rose by 1.36% quarter-over-quarter, driven by APC expansion.
鈥� The average Potassium Chloride price for the quarter was approximately USD 397.33/MT, FOB Aqaba, reflecting elevated freight.
鈥� Potassium Chloride Spot Price loosened in August amid subdued spot activity, pressuring merchant offers significantly.
鈥� Potassium Chloride Price Forecast indicates upside as contractual demand and forward bookings absorb seasonal stock.
鈥� Potassium Chloride Production Cost Trend rose from higher freight and handling charges, lifting export breakevens.
鈥� Potassium Chloride Demand Outlook remains steady with contracted Chinese and Indian purchases offsetting weaker spot buying.
鈥� Potassium Chloride Price Index stability reflected APC's operations, inventories at Aqaba, and tighter export allocations.
鈥� Forward buying before planting and eased port congestion support medium-term firmness despite Red Sea disruptions.
Why did the price of Potassium Chloride change in September 2025 in MEA?
鈥� Increased APC output and rising Aqaba inventories eased market tightness, pressuring spot netbacks during September.
鈥� Reduced Chinese and Indian spot buying after contract settlement somewhat slowed export demand in September.
鈥� Elevated Red Sea freight and port delays raised export costs, nudging offers higher in September.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
鈥� Potassium Chloride (MOP) Price Index in China increased by 6.5% quarter-on-quarter, settling near USD 402/MT CFR Qingdao in June 2025.
鈥� Why did the price of Potassium Chloride change in July in China?
鈥� April and May saw price softening due to weak NPK fertilizer demand, subdued procurement post-spring season, and the end of national reserve sales. However, in June, tighter seaborne imports, especially from Canada, Belarus, and Laos, led to a rebound, reinforced by restocking activity and reduced inventories at Qingdao and Lianyungang ports.
鈥� Potassium Chloride Price Forecast for Q3 2025: Prices are expected to trend firm to slightly bullish, depending on the pace of import recovery and Q3 application demand. Continued tight supply from major exporters and higher freight costs may push offers higher.
鈥� Potassium Chloride Production Cost Trend: While domestic production and reserves supported early-quarter stability, rising ocean freight rates and shrinking import volumes raised landed costs in June.
鈥� Potassium Chloride Demand Outlook: Q2 demand was weak early on due to the seasonal fertilizer lull and lower NPK sales, but improved modestly in June as corn and sugarcane top-dressing began. Demand was further supported by government procurement and a moderate recovery in field activity in the northeast and Guangxi regions.
鈥� Trade Policy Impact: The absence of a finalized 2025 China potash import contract kept market participants cautious. Meanwhile, regional trade dynamics shifted, with increased competition from Southeast Asia and rerouted Russian-origin cargoes influencing supply flows and pricing.
鈥� Fertilizer Sector: Spring planting season ended by mid-Q2, limiting potash usage. However, field trials continued to validate the agronomic value of full potash applications, and policy support for balanced NPK ratios remained intact.聽
North America
鈥� Potassium Chloride (MOP) Price Index in Canada rose by 7.3% quarter-on-quarter, settling at USD 335/MT FOB Vancouver in June 2025.
鈥� Why did the price of Potassium Chloride change in North America in July 2025?
鈥� Prices increased steadily throughout Q2 amid strong export demand from Brazil, the U.S., and India. The U.S. imposition of a 25% tariff on Canadian MOP imports in early April triggered precautionary buying.
鈥� Potassium Chloride Price Forecast for Q3 2025: Prices are expected to remain firm, supported by sustained demand from Brazil and South Asia. However, any easing of U.S. trade restrictions or unexpected supply boosts from Russia or Belarus could moderate price gains.
鈥� Production Cost Trend: Canadian production costs remained stable, with high utilization rates in Saskatchewan and manageable transportation expenses. CN Rail recovered from late-May backlogs, while energy-related input costs ticked slightly higher due to elevated natural gas-linked electricity tariffs.
鈥� Potassium Chloride Demand Outlook: Domestic demand was average post-spring planting, but offshore buying remained robust. The U.S. increased import activity ahead of tariff enforcement, and Brazil led restocking amid favorable margins.
鈥� Trade Policy Impact: The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on Canadian potash effective April 4, 2025, triggering a short-term import surge. Canada responded with a 10% duty on non-USMCA fertilizers, maintaining a tight regional trade environment.
鈥� Fertilizer Industry: The North American fertilizer sector saw stable potash consumption despite rising input costs. Nutrien and Mosaic maintained cautious output strategies, favoring stable pricing over expansion.聽
Middle East & Africa (MEA)
鈥� Potassium Chloride (MOP) Price Index in Jordan decreased by 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, reaching USD 330/MT FOB Aqaba in June 2025.
鈥� Why did the price of Potassium Chloride change in MEA in July 2025?
鈥� Prices initially surged in April due to firm global demand and tight supplies but corrected lower in May amid abundant availability from APC鈥檚 expanded capacity.聽
鈥� Potassium Chloride Price Forecast for Q3 2025: Prices are expected to remain stable to slightly bullish, supported by resumed buying from India and China, along with continued strong demand from Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.聽
鈥� Potassium Chloride Production Cost Trend: While local production costs in Jordan remained stable, freight costs rose by 3鈥�4% in Q2, and port congestion at Aqaba added minor shipping delays. Container surcharges also increased slightly, influencing FOB netbacks.聽
鈥� Potassium Chloride Demand Outlook: Demand from China and India鈥攖he two largest buyers鈥攚as subdued during most of Q2 as both nations paused new spot and long-term purchases due to contract renegotiations and subsidy clarifications.聽
鈥� Trade Policy Impact: No major trade barriers affected Jordanian MOP exports in Q2. However, buyers in India awaited revised subsidy allocations, and Chinese importers hesitated on new contracts due to pricing uncertainty. Jordan鈥檚 consistent shipping and competitive FOB values helped it gain market share in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand.
鈥� Fertilizer Industry: Jordan鈥檚 fertilizer sector benefited from robust global demand and rising substitution of phosphates by potash in some regions. Domestically, fertilizer use remained minimal, but Jordan played a strategic export role amid constrained supplies from Belarus and Russia.聽
Europe
鈥� Potassium Chloride (MOP) Price Index in Germany rose 11.3% quarter-on-quarter, reaching USD 374/MT FOB Hamburg in June 2025.
鈥� Why did the price of Potassium Chloride change in Europe in July 2025?
鈥� Prices steadily increased throughout Q2, supported by firm domestic and export demand, supply tightness due to EU sanctions on Belarusian potash, and improved competitiveness of European producers like K+S.聽
鈥� Potassium Chloride Price Forecast for Q3 2025: Prices are likely to remain firm, with upside risk from seasonal restocking in France and Brazil, continued supply curbs from Belarus, and possible logistical bottlenecks at European ports.
鈥� Potassium Chloride Production Cost Trend: German production costs remained largely stable through Q2 2025. Natural gas prices eased and settled labor agreements helped keep operational expenditures flat. Inland transport costs ticked higher due to low river levels, and freight rates to key destinations like Brazil and France rose by 3鈥�4% on tighter vessel availability.
鈥� Potassium Chloride Demand Outlook: Domestic demand in Germany was steady, with late-spring fieldwork and balanced NPK application programs supporting MOP usage in crops like corn, sugar beet, and rapeseed. Export demand remained robust, especially from Brazil, France, and Poland, as buyers prepared for planting and side-dressing phases.聽
鈥� Trade Policy Impact: The continued EU sanctions on Belarusian potash exports reinforced Europe鈥檚 dependence on internal supply, particularly from Germany. Favorable exchange rates and stable trade flows helped EU exporters maintain pricing power.聽
鈥� Fertilizer Industry: European fertilizer producers operated at healthy capacity utilization, with compound fertilizer producers focusing on potash-heavy blends. Despite rising freight and financing costs, potash remained cheaper than nitrogen or phosphate alternatives.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
Potassium Chloride (MOP) prices in North America followed an inclining trend throughout Q1 2025, driven by a combination of rising import costs, geopolitical trade uncertainties, and steady agricultural demand.聽
In January, prices rose amid growing speculation about a potential 25% tariff on Canadian potash, the region鈥檚 primary supply source. This anticipation led to early-season pre-buying and supply caution. February saw a continuation of this trend, as market participants responded to Nutrien鈥檚 price adjustments and stable demand from early fertilizer applications.聽
March brought further upward momentum due to tightening global supply conditions, seasonal planting activities, and the implementation of a 10% tariff on fertilizer imports from non-USMCA countries. With Canada supplying the bulk of imports, the market's heavy reliance on a single source created hesitancy and encouraged diversification. Imports from Russia, Israel, and Chile gained traction as potential alternatives. Despite some cost pressure on growers, strong crop yield projections and financial stability in the Midwest maintained demand.聽
Overall, Q1 reflected a resilient and upward-moving market, with supply uncertainties and policy changes shaping buying behavior and supporting a bullish price environment.
APAC
Potassium Chloride (MOP) in the APAC region witnessed an inclined trend throughout Q1 2025, driven by tight supply conditions and steady seasonal demand. In China, a key regional player, prices rose consistently from January to March due to constrained availability and strong import activity, despite occasional demand softness ahead of the Lunar New Year. Strategic stockpiling and record-high imports in 2024 underpinned firm market sentiment. The halt in operations at Laos鈥� Nongbok mine and reduced imports from Canada and Russia heightened supply concerns, while newly signed contracts failed to alleviate short-term shortages.
Manufacturing output saw gradual improvements, with major factories increasing daily production and small units preparing to restart in March. However, supply remained concentrated and liquidity low, especially at border ports, limiting the market鈥檚 flexibility. On the demand side, the approach of the spring planting season in March saw a ramp-up in compound fertilizer production, though elevated MOP prices constrained purchasing by small and mid-sized producers. Government-backed reserve tenders provided partial relief, yet the disparity between tender and spot prices fostered a cautious procurement environment, reinforcing firm pricing through the quarter.聽
Europe
The Potassium Chloride (MOP) market in Europe witnessed an inclining trend throughout Q1 2025, driven by shifting supply dynamics and seasonal demand. January began with a price dip as suppliers adjusted their offers to remain competitive amid subdued post-holiday demand. However, a gradual recovery began in February, marked by a slight price uptick as anticipation for the spring application season grew. By March, prices saw a notable rise supported by stronger seasonal demand and tightening global supply conditions. Key producers like Uralkali and Belaruskali implemented production cuts, which contributed to a narrower gap between granular and standard MOP, signaling constrained availability. Imports from Canada, Israel, and Jordan remained steady, helping offset the absence of Russian and Belarusian supply, but supply remained tight overall. European buyers, particularly in Germany and Poland, adjusted sourcing strategies, with some stocking up ahead of anticipated EU tariffs on Russian fertilizers. Demand from NPK producers and farmers increased steadily as spring approached, reinforcing market firmness.聽
Overall, Q1 2025 reflected a steadily improving market with expectations for continued strength into the next quarter amid ongoing supply limitations and seasonal demand.
MEA
Potassium Chloride (MOP) prices in the MEA region witnessed an overall incline trend during Q1 2025, largely driven by strong demand from major importing nations and stable production in Jordan. The quarter began with a slight decline in January due to contract uncertainties, despite external support from firming prices in Brazil and Southeast Asia. However, by February and March, prices rebounded steadily, supported by a revival in global demand, particularly from India and China. India鈥檚 shift toward increased NPK fertilizer production boosted potash imports, while China continued its strategic stockpiling ahead of the spring application season. Jordan played a central role in meeting this growing demand, with the Arab Potash Company achieving record-high production levels, strengthening the country鈥檚 export position. Jordan's cost-effective production, aided by abundant natural brine resources and energy efficiency investments, enhanced its competitiveness in global markets.聽
Though global supply remained ample, slow inventory movement in other key markets and ongoing contract negotiations added upward pressure on prices. The fertilizer industry in MEA remained buoyant, with improved crop affordability and consistent demand supporting the regional market outlook.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American Potassium Chloride (MOP) market in Q4 2024 exhibited a volatile price trajectory, driven by a complex interplay of supply and demand factors. The quarter commenced with a decline in prices in Canada due to reduced consumer demand and increased imports of cheaper goods.聽
However, prices experienced a gradual increase in October and November, driven by steady demand from the agricultural sector and increased imports of higher-priced goods. This upward trend was further supported by supply chain disruptions and logistical challenges, impacting supply availability. Subsequently, prices surged significantly in December, driven by a combination of factors, including increased demand from the agricultural sector, particularly for winter wheat and corn applications, and rising input costs.聽
This upward trend was further supported by strong domestic production and a robust export market, with increased shipments to key regions like South America and Asia. Despite some challenges, such as increased competition from other exporters and potential trade uncertainties, the North American MOP market demonstrated resilience, with factors such as strong agricultural performance and increased demand from key sectors supporting market stability towards the end of the quarter.
APAC
The APAC Potassium Chloride (MOP) market in Q4 2024 exhibited a volatile price trajectory, influenced by a complex interplay of supply and demand factors. The quarter commenced with a decline in prices pf potassium chloride due to reduced demand following the autumn application season and a slowdown in purchasing activity. This downward trend was further exacerbated by significant import volumes, which exerted downward pressure on market sentiment. However, prices rebounded significantly in November, driven by favorable affordability and expectations for strong winter reserve demand. Subsequently, prices continued to rise in December, driven by a combination of factors, including sustained import volumes, tighter supply conditions, and increased demand ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays. Despite challenges such as elevated inventory levels and subdued demand from certain sectors, the APAC MOP market demonstrated some resilience, with factors such as strong government support for sustainable agriculture practices and increased investments in infrastructure supporting market stability towards the end of the quarter.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the Potassium Chloride (MOP) market in Europe experienced fluctuating price trends influenced by weak demand, high inventories, and seasonal dynamics. Prices dropped by 5.5% in October due to subdued downstream fertilizer demand, minimal transactions during the European fertilizer conference, and delayed agricultural activity caused by heavy rainfall. Inventory levels remained high as both domestic production and imports from neighboring countries continued at moderate levels. A brief logistical disruption in October, caused by a sunken vessel in the Meuse River, impacted fertilizer cargo movement but was resolved mid-month. By November, prices stabilized with a 1.8% increase, driven by tighter supplies and bullish sentiment ahead of the spring application season. However, demand remained largely piecemeal, with buyers opting for small, incremental purchases. As December approached, prices leveled off, ending the quarter at USD 300鈥�320/tonne CIF, reflecting subdued winter demand and restocking efforts focused on other fertilizers like urea and DAP. The fertilizer industry鈥檚 bearish sentiment mirrored broader global trends, but early signs of increased purchasing interest in Southern Europe hinted at preparations for spring planting. While Q4 2024 was marked by cautious market activity, expectations of stronger demand in Q1 2025 suggest potential for a moderate price recovery.
MEA
The MEA Potassium Chloride market in Q4 2024 exhibited a volatile price trajectory, driven by a complex interplay of supply and demand factors. The quarter commenced with a period of price stability amidst moderate demand from key sectors such as agriculture and industry. However, prices experienced a gradual increase in October, driven by factors such as increased demand from the agricultural sector, particularly for key crops like wheat and barley, and rising input costs. This upward trend was further supported by strong demand from key export markets, including India and Southeast Asia. However, prices declined sharply in November, primarily due to subdued demand from the downstream sector, driven by factors such as reduced industrial activity and cautious spending. This downward trend was further exacerbated by declining demand from key export markets and increased competition from other suppliers. Subsequently, prices rebounded significantly in December, driven by a combination of factors, including increased demand from the agricultural sector, particularly for winter crops, and rising input costs. This upward trend was further supported by strong demand from key export markets, such as India and Southeast Asia, and increased investments in infrastructure projects across the region.聽
