For the Quarter Ending December 2025
North America
鈥� In USA, the Wheat Price Index rose by 4.80% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting stronger export demand tightness.
鈥� The average Wheat price for the quarter was approximately USD 233.00/MT, reported in monthly survey.
鈥� Wheat Spot Price eased in December as ample inventories pressured cash bids across US ports.
鈥� Wheat Price Forecast anticipates modest near-term weakness followed by selective recovery driven by seasonal restocking.
鈥� Wheat Production Cost Trend reflects impact of locked fertilizer and steady diesel on farmer sales.
鈥� Wheat Demand Outlook firmed mid-quarter as Asian and North African inquiries tightened balances and basis.
鈥� Wheat Price Index movement reflected Black Sea competitiveness, river draft limits and elevated rail freight.
鈥� Wheat Spot Price remained muted as exporters trimmed offers to clear stocks before spring selling.
Why did the price of Wheat change in December 2025 in North America?
鈥� Post-harvest inventories across the Plains increased, lowering urgency and pressuring cash bids and nearby premiums.
鈥� Muted overseas buying favored cheaper Black Sea origins, weakening US export demand, trimming FOB offers.
鈥� Logistics functioned smoothly with no material disruptions, enabling normal shipments and limiting localized premium spikes.
APAC
鈥� In India, the Wheat Price Index fell by 0.11% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting broadly mild market correction.
鈥� The average Wheat price for the quarter was approximately USD 284.82/MT, supported by miller purchases.
鈥� Wheat Spot Price in Bareilly firmed on thinner arrivals and miller procurement ahead seasonal festivals
鈥� Wheat Price Forecast indicates modest upside into early 2026 driven by pre-planting restocking and procurement.
鈥� Wheat Production Cost Trend elevated; firm diesel and fertilizer prices supported farmers further withholding stocks
鈥� Wheat Demand Outlook remained stable with routine mill consumption and government welfare purchases sustaining absorption.
鈥� Wheat Price Index benefited from export restrictions keeping surplus onshore, limiting downside for mandi quotations.
鈥� Rail logistics remained efficient and warehouses held comfortable stocks, moderating spikes in Wheat Price Index
Why did the price of Wheat change in December 2025 in APAC?
鈥� Thinner market arrivals and farmers withholding stock after MSP increase tightened spot availability in December.
鈥� Firm diesel and fertilizer costs raised production cost pressures, reducing farmer incentive to sell frequently.
鈥� Limited export outlets due to embargo trapped volumes domestically, with procurement absorbing most supplies locally.
Europe
鈥� In Russia, the Wheat Price Index fell by 1.85% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting large harvest and restrained export demand.
鈥� The average Wheat price for the quarter was USD 229.33/MT based on export quotations and port loadings.
鈥� Wheat Spot Price at Novorossiysk softened as heavy stocks and routine shipments limited upward momentum.
鈥� Wheat Price Forecast signals recovery risks after holidays driven by tender activity and seasonal restocking.
鈥� Wheat Production Cost Trend declined with subsidised diesel and lower fertilizer supporting competitive FOB offers.
鈥� Wheat Demand Outlook adequate from Egypt and Turkey, but global origin competition limits immediate purchases.
鈥� Wheat Price Index showed muted volatility as improved port throughput offset elevated on-farm inventories levels.
鈥� Exporters exercised pricing discipline while rail and terminal operations functioned normally, preventing abrupt FOB swings.
Why did the price of Wheat change in December 2025 in Europe?
鈥� Ample harvest and large carryover stocks reduced urgency, exerting mild downward pressure on export quotations.
鈥� Subsidized diesel and fertilizer costs eased production expenses, enabling competitive FOB pricing and exporter flexibility.
鈥� Improved port throughput and stable floating duty supported steady shipments while cautious buyers deferred bookings.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
鈥� In the USA, the Wheat Price Index fell by 0.89% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting modest market easing.
鈥� The average Wheat price for the quarter was approximately USD 222.33/MT, supported by export enquiries.
鈥� Wheat Spot Price movement reflected delayed harvests and stronger export interest, tightening nearby availability overall
鈥� Wheat Price Forecast through September shows modest firmness before seasonal easing driven by harvest supplies
鈥� Wheat Production Cost Trend remained elevated due to higher input and logistics costs, cushioning pricing
鈥� Wheat Demand Outlook improved with strong export bookings and competitive US offers attracting regional buyers
鈥� Elevated domestic stocks and Black Sea competition influenced the Wheat Price Index, pressuring FOB offers
鈥� Harvest progress improvements and logistical efficiencies likely eased spot availability, moderating seasonal premium for sellers
Why did the price of Wheat change in September 2025 in North America?
鈥� Delayed harvests and reduced domestic production forecasts tightened supplies, increasing export competition and price pressure.
鈥� Elevated input costs and higher logistics sustained production cost pressures, limiting sellers' willingness to discount.
鈥� Stronger buying, geopolitical uncertainties, and shifting Black Sea competitiveness accelerated procurement, supporting firmer export offers.
APAC
鈥� In India, the Wheat Price Index fell by 2.64% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting ample procurement and elevated stocks.
鈥� The average Wheat price for the quarter was approximately USD 285.14/MT, supported by government procurement programmes and subdued export activity.
鈥� Wheat Spot Price strength was limited despite seasonal buying, while the Wheat Price Index reflected inventory-driven softness.
鈥� Wheat Price Forecast shows modest volatility ahead; Wheat Demand Outlook steady amid festival demand and controlled export policy.
鈥� Wheat Production Cost Trend remained muted as input costs stabilized, reducing immediate upward pressure on mandi prices.
鈥� Elevated government inventories and export restrictions constrained trade flows, influencing mandi liquidity and regional wholesale price behaviour.
鈥� Robust procurement by FCI tightened market availability, while processors' pre-festive buying temporarily supported mandi-level prices.
鈥� Monsoon-related transport disruptions and planned FCI releases will drive short-term Wheat Price Index fluctuations and uncertainty.
Why did the price of Wheat change in September 2025 in APAC?
鈥� Elevated procurement and record stocks increased domestic supply, reducing spot scarcity and depressing mandi-level Price Index.
鈥� Export ban and restricted cross-border flows limited external demand, shifting consumption domestically and moderating export-driven premiums.
鈥� Improved harvest expectations and stabilized input costs reduced procurement urgency, while logistics issues intermittently tightened spot availability.
Europe
鈥� In Russia, the Wheat Price Index fell by 3.04% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting weaker export demand abroad during Q3.
鈥� The average Wheat price for the quarter was approximately USD 233.67/MT, FOB Novorossiysk, export realizations volatile.
鈥� Wheat Spot Price strengthened as front-loaded exports responded to duty changes, tightening available exportable supplies in ports.
鈥� Wheat Price Forecast points to autumn gains driven by constrained southern yields and firmer demand near term.
鈥� Wheat Production Cost Trend shows harvesting and logistics expenses pressuring exporter offers despite ample output elevating FOB.
鈥� Wheat Demand Outlook uncertain as front-loading by Turkey and Egypt offsets softer global cereal demand short term.
鈥� Wheat Price Index volatility rose when geopolitical stabilization removed risk premia and exporters adjusted offers.
鈥� Inventories tightened, port logistics delays constrained shipments, and competitive Ukraine offers pressured Russian FOB competitiveness.
Why did the price of Wheat change in September 2025 in Europe?
鈥� Front-loaded exports before duty hikes tightened supply, raising short-term export prices and shifting FOB dynamics.
鈥� Improved national harvest forecasts eased domestic shortages, reducing seasonal buying and moderating price pressure somewhat.
鈥� Logistic constraints and elevated harvesting costs increased seller offers, while weaker global demand limited upside.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
鈥� The Price Index for Wheat in the United States saw a reversal in July 2025, declining from the June level of USD 225/MT amid shifting market fundamentals and improved supply visibility.
鈥� Spot Price correction was triggered by improved weather across key Midwest regions, including Kansas and North Dakota, which supported better yield expectations and minimized prior concerns over spring wheat stress.
鈥� July 2025 marked a cooling in momentum after June鈥檚 sharp rally. Lower export volumes and a slowdown in foreign bookings weighed on procurement sentiment, particularly as buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach following a volatile June.
鈥� Production Cost Trend showed slight easing due to stable fertilizer and fuel costs in July, contrasting with the inflation-driven spikes seen earlier. This, combined with better logistical fluidity post-harvest, reduced overhead pressure on millers and traders.
鈥� Demand Outlook weakened modestly in July due to softening export inquiries from Southeast Asia and North Africa, which previously surged amid geopolitical disruptions. Domestic demand remained steady, but not strong enough to sustain prior pricing levels.
鈥� Why did the price of Wheat change in July 2025?
鈥� The price of wheat in the U.S. declined in July 2025 due to easing supply-side concerns as favorable weather improved yield expectations. Slower export demand and stabilized input costs further pressured prices downward.
Europe
鈥� In June 2025, the Wheat FOB Novorossiysk (Russia) Price Index dropped sharply by 8.13%, settling at USD 226/MT, as ample domestic harvest expectations and low export volumes weakened market fundamentals.
鈥� The Spot Price correction reflected mounting pressure from increased competition with Ukraine and the EU, alongside declining forage wheat consumption in the domestic livestock sector.
鈥� The Price Forecast for July had indicated mild recovery, driven by stabilizing trade flows and short-term restocking by traditional importers.
鈥� The Production Cost Trend remained largely unchanged due to steady input prices, although the removal of the export tax slightly improved margins for traders.
鈥� The Demand Outlook deteriorated through June as Russia鈥檚 domestic grain usage fell to 83.2 million tonnes, with export shipments shrinking to 1.7 million tonnes, the lowest in the 2024鈥�25 season.
鈥� Why did the price of Wheat change in July 2025?
鈥� Wheat FOB Novorossiysk prices saw a moderate uptick in July 2025 due to reduced selling pressure from Russian exporters, tighter freight availability, and renewed demand from North African and Middle Eastern importers, improving trade sentiment after a weak June.
鈥� Domestic inventory accumulation and lack of competitiveness against cheaper European-origin wheat added to the bearish sentiment, especially as Turkey and Egypt diversified sourcing.
鈥� In July 2025, Wheat FOB Novorossiysk Spot Prices showed a moderate uptick, supported by tightening freight availability, gradual exporter re-entry into the market, and marginal rebound in North African buying interest.
APAC
鈥� Price Index for Wheat Ex Bareilly (India) softened in July 2025, reversing the marginal upward trend seen in June as procurement slowed and buyer activity declined.
鈥� Spot Price of Wheat Ex Bareilly (India) dropped to USD 282/MT in July from USD 288/MT in June, reflecting a month-on-month decrease.
鈥� Price Forecast for Wheat Ex Bareilly (India) suggests continued mild softness in August 2025, driven by subdued open market demand, adequate buffer stocks, and no change in export restrictions.
鈥� Production Cost Trend for Wheat Ex Bareilly (India) remained largely unchanged as harvest activities concluded by June; procurement costs normalized post-peak season.
鈥� Demand Outlook for Wheat Ex Bareilly (India) weakened in July 2025 as buyers refrained from large-volume purchases due to sufficient supply availability from government-held stocks and subdued speculative activity.
鈥� Why did the price of Wheat change in July 2025?
鈥� Prices of Wheat Ex Bareilly (India) declined in July due to a drop in private sector demand post-harvest, ample availability of procured stock held by the Food Corporation of India, and the continuation of the export ban which limited international offtake.
鈥� Inventory dynamics for Wheat Ex Bareilly (India) remained favorable, with government reserves at 36.9 million tons as of June ensuring no short-term supply disruptions.
鈥� Regional cues for Wheat Ex Bareilly (India) include the Indian government鈥檚 formal WTO notification confirming extension of wheat export restrictions, which stabilized domestic food security but removed any price support from overseas demand.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the U.S. wheat market experienced notable price fluctuations shaped by shifting global dynamics and domestic supply-demand trends. January began with a slight price decline, largely driven by weak international demand and heightened competition from alternative suppliers. A stronger dollar and volatile freight rates further discouraged exports, while rising winter wheat acreage and stable domestic production tempered market sentiment. Export activity remained limited as buyers engaged in minimal, need-based purchases.
February saw a sharp reversal, with wheat prices rising significantly due to tightening global supply conditions. Concerns over adverse weather in Europe, Russia, and parts of the U.S., coupled with Russia鈥檚 wheat export quota, tightened global availability and boosted demand for American wheat. The USDA also reported a 24 percent drop in soft red winter wheat output, further constraining supply. Procurement by the Food for Progress program added additional strain, leading to intensified upward price pressure.
However, in March, the market shifted once again, with prices falling amid global market weakness and improving crop prospects. The FAO Cereal Price Index declined by 2.6 percent, reflecting a broader drop in international grain prices. Favorable U.S. weather and strong yield expectations softened the market, while reduced demand from major buyers like China and uncertainties over trade tariffs kept trading activity subdued. Overall, Q1 2025 closed with a bearish tone despite earlier bullish momentum.
Asia Pacific
In Q1 2025, the Indian wheat market displayed significant price volatility, beginning with record highs in January followed by a brief dip in February, and ending with a strong rebound in March. January鈥檚 rally was driven by tight market supplies and vigorous demand from flour mills. Prices surged well beyond the minimum support price despite government-imposed stockholding limits, raising concerns over food inflation. The government responded with a long-term infrastructure investment plan to boost storage capacity, while wheat acreage hit an all-time high amid favorable winter rainfall in key northern states.
February saw a temporary easing of prices as increased cultivation and a ban on exports ensured stable domestic availability. Record-high production estimates and government-mandated stock limits further discouraged speculative activity. Meanwhile, demand was subdued due to restrained offtake by the milling and packaged food sectors and signs of cooling industrial activity, which softened market sentiment.
By March, prices rebounded sharply. Aggressive government procurement鈥攐ver 8 million tonnes toward a 31 million tonne target鈥攖ightened open market supplies. Additional bonuses in states like Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan prompted farmers to prioritize public channels, reducing private sector access. Weather uncertainties, especially unseasonal heat threatening yields, introduced a risk premium. Simultaneously, improving rural distribution and a slight economic upturn supported rising demand. These converging supply constraints and robust end-user consumption sustained bullish momentum in India鈥檚 wheat market by the end of the quarter.
Europe
Throughout Q1 2025, the European wheat market experienced heightened volatility, largely shaped by sharp price increases in Russian wheat and evolving global trade patterns. In January, Russian wheat prices surged to multi-month highs due to adverse weather, lower production, and policy measures such as export quotas and variable taxes. This led to a sharp 50 percent year-on-year decline in Russian exports. Despite a notable 25鈥�30 percent drop in freight rates, rising FOB prices offset cost savings, prompting European buyers to diversify sources, increasingly turning to Argentina, Australia, Ukraine, and Southeast Europe. These developments underscored tightening supply and persistent uncertainty in the regional wheat market.
February brought continued price escalation, fueled by Russia鈥檚 implementation of a 10.6 million-ton wheat export quota. As Russian export volumes shrank and weather-related concerns intensified across Europe, global buyers aggressively sought alternative suppliers. This sustained upward momentum in European wheat prices, even as exporters faced narrowing profit margins due to rising operational costs and limited capacity.
In March, the trend persisted. Russian wheat exports plummeted nearly 65 percent year over year, reducing regional availability and sustaining price pressure. The number of active Russian exporters and terminals also fell significantly, compounding supply issues. Despite slight easing in global wheat prices, domestic inflation and logistical constraints kept European wheat markets elevated and competitive. Q1 concluded with firm market sentiment amid constrained supply and shifting trade flows.
