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Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) prices across major European markets including Germany, UK, and Italy remained stable during the fourth week of April 2025, but underlying market sentiment has shifted toward bearish territory. Limited trading activity following Easter holidays combined with upcoming May breaks has created a cautious atmosphere among buyers despite mills attempting to maintain offer levels.

Key Takeaways:

• HRC prices held steady in Germany, UK, and Italy during the fourth week of April
• HRC Market activity remains subdued with many buyers adopting a "wait-and-see" approach
• Upcoming holidays and shorter workweeks expected to further hamper market momentum
• Mills are well-booked until mid-year, extending lead times despite weak demand
• Import activity remains limited due to trade policy uncertainty and quotas
• Gap persists between mill offer prices and buyers' tradable values
• Mixed outlook with some expecting stability while others predict price declines

The German HRC market has experienced minimal movement with unchanged offer prices despite suppliers in both Germany and Benelux reportedly being booked well into the future. Easter School holidays in some German regions have further dampened market activity, with many participants delaying decisions until after the upcoming Made in Steel trade fair in Italy. While mills maintain HRC offer stability, buyers argue these prices are significantly higher than warranted by current economic conditions.

In the UK, the HRC market shows similar inactivity with one trader describing conditions as "just flat." British buyers remain particularly cautious amid ongoing regulatory uncertainty, creating a significant gap between mill offers DDP West Midlands and buyers. The market lacks the typical price recovery bounce that would normally follow a bottoming-out period, suggesting deeper structural concerns beyond seasonal factors.

Italy's HRC market displayed slightly more weakness with market participants reporting a downward price trend. The Italian situation highlights the broader European contradiction: while demand remains sluggish, suppliers maintain steady offer prices with only limited flexibility for discounts. Secondary market prices for 4mm HR sheets have stayed stable despite slow sales activity, showing the market's resistance to dramatic price movements despite bearish sentiment.

Import competition remains a complex factor across all three markets. While a stronger Euro and weaker dollar have made some non-EU import offers more attractive, concerns about quotas and safeguard measures continue to dampen buyer appetite. Trade restrictions have limited offers from traditional suppliers like Vietnam, Egypt, and Japan due to anti-dumping duties, though some transactions involving Indonesian and Indian HRC at competitive prices indicate selective import opportunities still exist.

The conflicting market signals create a divided outlook. Some sources believe HRC prices could increase further due to limited import options and growing reliance on domestic supply, while others expect weak demand to eventually push prices downward, particularly if import volumes rise in the coming months.

As per ¹û½´ÊÓƵ, European HRC prices are likely to face downward pressure through Q2 2025, with potential declines by June if current demand weakness persists. Any meaningful recovery would require either significant production cuts from European mills or unexpected demand improvement – neither of which appears imminent. The upcoming holiday season in Q3 will further challenge HRC market momentum, with true price stability unlikely before September when seasonal patterns typically strengthen. Mills maintaining high offer prices despite weak fundamentals suggests a growing disconnect that may eventually require correction through more aggressive pricing strategies if order books begin to thin during the traditionally slower summer period.